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Appendix: sources, definitions, the cycle model rules, policy measures

FreeFlowchart

Each phase has one exit test, and the order never changes

FreeFlowchart

Each phase has one exit test, and the order never changes

Tested every quarter on the price index, the Straits Times Index and sales. Full rules in the table.

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Each phase has one exit test, and the order never changesThe model moves in one direction only: Early Bull, Late Bull, Early Bear, Late Bear, then Early Bull. It never goes back and never skips a stage.Early BullEarly BullSlowdown signal. or 0.9% fall?Slowdown signalor 0.9% fall?Late BullLate BullPrices fall. 0.9% or more?Prices fall0.9% or more?Early BearEarly BearStocks +10%, or 2. quarters no fall?Stocks +10%, or 2quarters no fall?Late BearLate BearTwo rising. quarters?Two risingquarters?yesyesyesyesIf the answer is no, the market stays in its phase. The order never changes and no phase is skipped.Early Bull exit: sales below a year ago, plus signal (a) or (b). A quarterly fall of 0.9% or more also ends it.(a) price growth slows and the stock market falls 5% or more in the quarter.(b) 3-quarter average growth is below 1% a quarter and lower than a quarter earlier.

The model moves in one direction only: Early Bull, Late Bull, Early Bear, Late Bear, then Early Bull. It never goes back and never skips a stage.

Source: PropInsights Property Market Cycle Model (rules of 15 Oct 2026; scripts/data/pmcm.mjs). Price index URA via SingStat; Straits Times Index SGX (red licence class, owner decision of 15 Oct 2026); sales URA.

View the data as a table
Each phase has one exit test, and the order never changes
StepDetailLeads to
Early BullSlowdown signal
Slowdown signalor 0.9% fall?Late Bull (yes)
Late BullPrices fall
Prices fall0.9% or more?Early Bear (yes)
Early BearStocks +10%, or 2
Stocks +10%, or 2quarters no fall?Late Bear (yes)
Late BearTwo rising
Two risingquarters?Early Bull (yes)
Topic
Appendix: sources, definitions, the cycle model rules, policy measures
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Appendix: sources, definitions, the cycle model rules, policy measures

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