Cycle model

The property market runs in four phases, one way round

A fixed rule puts every quarter since 1995 Q1 into one of four phases. It shows where the market stands in its cycle and what history favoured in each phase. It describes the past. It is not a forecast and it is not advice.

How the model reads a quarter See the phase history

Early BullPrices rising
Late BullGrowth fading
Early BearPrices falling
Late BearFalls slowing

Data to 2026 Q2. Inputs: the URA private residential price index (SingStat), sales volume (URA) and the STI (SGX). Table built 2026-10-15.

Current phase: membersSee the current phase

Private home price index

219.4

+0.5%in 2026 Q2

Source: Singapore Department of Statistics (Table Builder). · 2026 Q2

Completed phase runs

19runs

Source: PropInsights cycle model. · 1996 Q3 to 2025 Q3

Longest run

20quarters

Early Bull, 2020 Q4 to 2025 Q3

Source: PropInsights cycle model. · 2025 Q3

Quarters read by the model

126quarters

Source: PropInsights cycle model. · 1995 Q1 to 2026 Q2

History

Every phase since 1996 Q3

Each band is one completed phase run. The line is the price index. Dots below mark 21 measures on private homes. The free history ends with the last completed run, 2025 Q3.

Point at a band to read its dates and price change.

Show policy measures

Swipe sideways to see every year.

Early Bull
Late Bull
Early Bear
Late Bear
Current phase: members
Measure that tightened
Measure that loosened

Source: PropInsights Property Market Cycle Model over the URA private residential price index (SingStat table M212261, index 1Q2009 = 100), the STI (SGX) and URA sales. Policy measures: policy timeline of the site, private housing only. Data to 2025 Q3 (the member view goes to 2026 Q2).

Table: every completed phase run (19 rows)

Every completed phase run
Run	Phase	From	To	Quarters	Index at start	Index at end	Price change	Per year	STI change	Sales a quarter
1	Early Bear	1996 Q3	1998 Q3	9	127.2	78.3	-38.4%	-19.4%	-56.8%	2,935
2	Late Bear	1998 Q4	1998 Q4	1	78.3	71.5	-8.7%	-30.5%	+48.2%	5,209
3	Early Bull	1999 Q1	1999 Q4	4	71.5	95.9	+34.1%	+34.1%	+78.0%	5,838
4	Late Bull	2000 Q1	2000 Q2	2	95.9	100.4	+4.7%	+9.6%	-17.8%	3,134
5	Early Bear	2000 Q3	2001 Q3	5	100.4	87.6	-12.7%	-10.3%	-35.3%	2,827
6	Late Bear	2001 Q4	2004 Q1	10	87.6	80.3	-8.3%	-3.4%	+40.9%	3,328
7	Early Bull	2004 Q2	2007 Q3	14	80.3	114.4	+42.5%	+10.6%	+99.4%	6,250
8	Late Bull	2007 Q4	2008 Q2	3	114.4	126.9	+10.9%	+14.8%	-20.5%	4,389
9	Early Bear	2008 Q3	2009 Q1	3	126.9	100.0	-21.2%	-27.2%	-42.3%	3,342
10	Late Bear	2009 Q2	2009 Q2	1	100.0	95.3	-4.7%	-17.5%	+37.2%	10,126
11	Early Bull	2009 Q3	2011 Q2	8	95.3	145.1	+52.3%	+23.4%	+33.7%	9,465
12	Late Bull	2011 Q3	2013 Q3	9	145.1	154.6	+6.5%	+2.9%	+1.5%	7,967
13	Early Bear	2013 Q4	2016 Q4	13	154.6	137.2	-11.3%	-3.6%	-9.1%	3,635
14	Late Bear	2017 Q1	2017 Q2	2	137.2	136.6	-0.4%	-0.9%	+12.0%	6,048
15	Early Bull	2017 Q3	2018 Q3	5	136.6	149.7	+9.6%	+7.6%	+0.9%	6,231
16	Late Bull	2018 Q4	2019 Q4	5	149.7	153.6	+2.6%	+2.1%	-1.1%	4,598
17	Early Bear	2020 Q1	2020 Q2	2	153.6	152.6	-0.7%	-1.3%	-19.6%	3,464
18	Late Bear	2020 Q3	2020 Q3	1	152.6	153.8	+0.8%	+3.2%	-4.8%	7,041
19	Early Bull	2020 Q4	2025 Q3	20	153.8	215.1	+39.9%	+6.9%	+74.3%	6,153

Source: PropInsights Property Market Cycle Model over the URA price index (SingStat), the STI (SGX) and URA sales. Price change is from the quarter before the run to its last quarter (the first run: from its first quarter). Table: data/derived/cycle_phases.csv.

The same history as a line chart, with its table view

FreeLine chart

Prices went through 19 completed phase runs from 1996 Q3 to 2025 Q3; the longest lasted 20 quarters

Index, 1Q2009 = 100

CSV download: members

Each colour is one phase: Early Bull green, Late Bull amber, Early Bear red, Late Bear violet. The free history stops at the end of the last completed run. The current phase is for members.

Source: URA price index via SingStat; phases from the PropInsights Property Market Cycle Model. The model also reads the STI (SGX) and sales volume (URA). Data to 2025 Q3.

View the data as a table

Prices went through 19 completed phase runs from 1996 Q3 to 2025 Q3; the longest lasted 20 quarters
Period	Early Bull	Late Bull	Early Bear	Late Bear
1995-Q1		110
1995-Q2		111
1995-Q3		113
1995-Q4		118
1996-Q1		122
1996-Q2		130	130
1996-Q3			127
1996-Q4			124
1997-Q1			119
1997-Q2			118
1997-Q3			113
1997-Q4			108
1998-Q1			98
1998-Q2			90
1998-Q3			78	78
1998-Q4	72			72
1999-Q1	75
1999-Q2	84
1999-Q3	91
1999-Q4	96	96
2000-Q1		99
2000-Q2		100	100
2000-Q3			98
2000-Q4			95
2001-Q1			91
2001-Q2			90
2001-Q3			88	88
2001-Q4				84
2002-Q1				83
2002-Q2				82
2002-Q3				83
2002-Q4				82
2003-Q1				82
2003-Q2				81
2003-Q3				81
2003-Q4				81
2004-Q1	80			80
2004-Q2	80
2004-Q3	81
2004-Q4	81
2005-Q1	82
2005-Q2	82
2005-Q3	83
2005-Q4	85
2006-Q1	86
2006-Q2	87
2006-Q3	90
2006-Q4	93
2007-Q1	98
2007-Q2	106
2007-Q3	114	114
2007-Q4		122
2008-Q1		127
2008-Q2		127	127
2008-Q3			124
2008-Q4			116
2009-Q1			100	100
2009-Q2	95			95
2009-Q3	110
2009-Q4	118
2010-Q1	125
2010-Q2	132
2010-Q3	136
2010-Q4	139
2011-Q1	142
2011-Q2	145	145
2011-Q3		147
2011-Q4		147
2012-Q1		147
2012-Q2		148
2012-Q3		149
2012-Q4		152
2013-Q1		152
2013-Q2		154
2013-Q3		155	155
2013-Q4			153
2014-Q1			151
2014-Q2			150
2014-Q3			149
2014-Q4			147
2015-Q1			146
2015-Q2			144
2015-Q3			142
2015-Q4			142
2016-Q1			141
2016-Q2			140
2016-Q3			138
2016-Q4			137	137
2017-Q1				137
2017-Q2	137			137
2017-Q3	138
2017-Q4	139
2018-Q1	144
2018-Q2	149
2018-Q3	150	150
2018-Q4		150
2019-Q1		149
2019-Q2		151
2019-Q3		153
2019-Q4		154	154
2020-Q1			152
2020-Q2			153	153
2020-Q3	154			154
2020-Q4	157
2021-Q1	162
2021-Q2	164
2021-Q3	165
2021-Q4	174
2022-Q1	175
2022-Q2	181
2022-Q3	188
2022-Q4	189
2023-Q1	195
2023-Q2	194
2023-Q3	196
2023-Q4	202
2024-Q1	204
2024-Q2	206
2024-Q3	205
2024-Q4	209
2025-Q1	211
2025-Q2	213
2025-Q3	215

The phases

The four phases, and what history favoured

The cycle runs one way: Early Bull, Late Bull, Early Bear, Late Bear, then Early Bull again. The figures use the 19 completed runs since 1996 Q3. The run under way is left out.

1 of 4

Early Bull

Prices rising

+12.4%a year (up)

Price index, all 5 runs joined end to end.

The price index ended higher in all 5 completed runs. Joined end to end, it rose 12.4% a year.

Average run: 10.2 quarters (from 4 to 20), +35.7% on the price index.

It ends when: Sales volume is down on a year earlier, and either (a) price growth slows while the STI falls 5% or more in the quarter, or (b) average growth over 3 quarters is below 1% and lower than a quarter earlier. Or prices fall 0.9% or more in a quarter.

2 of 4

Late Bull

Growth fading

+5.1%a year (up)

Price index, all 4 runs joined end to end.

The price index ended higher in all 4 completed runs. Joined end to end, it rose 5.1% a year.

Average run: 4.8 quarters (from 2 to 9), +6.2% on the price index.

It ends when: Prices fall 0.9% or more in a quarter. This is the only way out.

3 of 4

Early Bear

Prices falling

-11.6%a year (down)

Price index, all 5 runs joined end to end.

The price index ended higher in none of the 5 completed runs. Joined end to end, it fell 11.6% a year.

Average run: 6.4 quarters (from 2 to 13), -16.9% on the price index.

It ends when: The STI rebounds 10% or more in the quarter, or prices have not fallen for 2 quarters in a row.

4 of 4

Late Bear

Falls slowing

-5.7%a year (down)

Price index, all 5 runs joined end to end.

The price index ended higher in 1 of 5 completed runs. Joined end to end, it fell 5.7% a year.

Average run: 3.0 quarters (from 1 to 10), -4.3% on the price index.

It ends when: Prices rise in 2 quarters in a row. The new phase starts in the first of the two.

Table: average length and return of each phase

Average length and return of each phase
Phase	Runs	Index rose in	Average length (quarters)	Shortest to longest	Average price change per run	Per year	Average STI change
Early Bull	5	5 of 5	10.2	4 to 20	+35.7%	+12.4%	+57.3%
Late Bull	4	4 of 4	4.8	2 to 9	+6.2%	+5.1%	-9.5%
Early Bear	5	0 of 5	6.4	2 to 13	-16.9%	-11.6%	-32.6%
Late Bear	5	1 of 5	3.0	1 to 10	-4.3%	-5.7%	+26.7%

From the 19 completed runs. "Per year" joins all runs of the phase end to end and gives the yearly rate of the price index. The STI is the mean change over the runs.

The rule

How the model reads a quarter

Once a quarter the model does four things, always in this order. The limits come from the settings of the rule.

Settings: price fall 0.9%, STI drop 5%, STI rebound 10%, slow growth 1% over 3 quarters, 2 quarters without a fall. They are the PARAMS in scripts/data/pmcm.mjs.

Read three numbers
The change in the URA price index in the quarter. The change in the STI in the quarter (SGX). Sales volume against the same quarter a year earlier (URA).
Check one rule
Each phase has its own exit rule. The model checks only the rule of the phase it is in. It does not look for a phase to jump to.
Move on, one way
If a signal fires, the model moves to the next phase in the order. It never goes back and it never skips a stage.
Flag a doubtful quarter
If the latest quarter starts a phase on a bear signal, the model marks it unconfirmed. A dip that reverses looks the same on the day. The next quarter decides.

The four signals, in plain words

Prices fall
The price index drops 0.9% or more in one quarter.
It is the only way out of Late Bull. In Early Bull it also moves the model on to Late Bull.
Late BullEarly Bear
Growth fades while sales fall
Sales are down on a year earlier, and either price growth slows while the STI falls 5% or more in the quarter, or average growth over 3 quarters is under 1% and lower than a quarter before.
Early BullLate Bull
Shares recover or prices stop falling
The STI rebounds 10% or more in the quarter, or prices have not fallen for 2 quarters in a row.
Early BearLate Bear
Prices turn up
The price index rises in 2 quarters in a row. The new phase starts in the first of the two.
Late BearEarly Bull

The rule as a flow chart

FreeFlowchart

The model moves one way round: Early Bull, Late Bull, Early Bear, Late Bear, then Early Bull again

CSV download: members

Source: PropInsights Property Market Cycle Model, scripts/data/pmcm.mjs. Inputs: URA price index and sales volume, and the STI (SGX; used as a model input by the owner's decision, not offered as a download).

View the data as a table

The model moves one way round: Early Bull, Late Bull, Early Bear, Late Bear, then Early Bull again
Step	Detail	Leads to
Early Bull	Prices rising	Leaves when sales volume is down on a year earlier and
Leaves when sales volume is down on a year earlier and	(a) growth slows and the STI falls 5% or more in the quarter,. or (b) 3-quarter average growth is under 1% and falling.. Also if prices fall 0.9% or more in a quarter.	Late Bull
Late Bull	Growth fading	Leaves when prices fall
Leaves when prices fall	0.9% or more in a quarter.. This is the only way out.	Early Bear
Early Bear	Prices falling	Leaves when the STI rebounds 10% or more
Leaves when the STI rebounds 10% or more	in a quarter, or prices have not fallen. for 2 quarters in a row.	Late Bear
Late Bear	Falls slowing	Leaves when prices rise
Leaves when prices rise	in 2 quarters in a row.. The new phase starts in. the first of the two.	Early Bull

Limits

What the model cannot do

A model that fits the past can still be wrong about today. These are the limits to keep in mind before you read a phase name.

It cannot tell a dip from a bear on the day

A quarter that falls 0.9% or more looks the same whether it starts a real fall or reverses next quarter. No rule can tell them apart in real time. So the latest quarter is marked unconfirmed when it starts a phase on a bear signal. The next quarter decides. Members see whether the latest quarter is marked.

A small change in a setting can change the answer

The fall in 2020 Q1 was -0.98%. In our tests, a price-fall limit from -0.9% to -0.7% gives the model a short cycle in 2020. A limit of -1.0% removes it. If slow growth is averaged over 1 or 2 quarters instead of 3, the long Early Bull from 2020 splits and a Late Bull appears for 2023 to 2025. History cannot say which setting is right.

It was fitted to the past

The rule was built to describe the phases up to 2012. A match there shows only that the rule can describe the past it was built on. After 2012 there is no reference answer. The phases since then are what today's rule says, and nothing independent confirms them.

It is not a forecast and not advice

The tables say what history favoured in each phase. A phase name describes a pattern in past prices. It is not a signal to buy or sell. Check your own finances and the current rules before you act.

For members

The current phase is for members

The free history above ends with the last completed run, 2025 Q3. Members see the phase the model gives to the latest quarter, 2026 Q2, and what it is watching.

Member

What a member sees

The current phase, with the unconfirmed flag when the latest quarter has one.
Since when it has run, and how many quarters so far.
The signals now: the price change, the STI change and sales against a year earlier, checked against the exit rule of the current phase.
The history to the latest quarter, as a chart with every phase, its table and the CSV.

Free for everyone

Every completed phase run since 1996 Q3, to 2025 Q3.
The rule in plain words, and its settings.
What history favoured in each phase, from completed runs only.
What the model cannot do.

See the current phase Sign in

Early Bull
Late Bull
Early Bear
Late Bear

MemberTable

Where the cycle model puts the market now, and what it is watching (members)

CSV download: members

Members see the full chartThe rest of the history, the data table and the CSV are for members.See plans Sign in

Source: PropInsights Property Market Cycle Model. Price index: URA via SingStat. Stock index: SGX. Sales volume: URA. A reading of what history favoured, not advice. Preview only: the full chart, table and CSV are for members. Preview of the first part. The full chart, table and CSV are for members.

MemberLine chart

The same phase history up to the latest quarter, with the current phase (members)

Index, 1Q2009 = 100

CSV download: members

Members see the full chartThe rest of the history, the data table and the CSV are for members.See plans Sign in

Source: URA price index via SingStat; phases from the PropInsights Property Market Cycle Model. The model also reads the STI (SGX) and sales volume (URA). Preview only: the full chart, table and CSV are for members. Preview of the first part (to 2012 Q1). The full chart, table and CSV are for members.

Sources

Where the numbers come from

Price index. URA private residential price index, via the Singapore Department of Statistics (SingStat) Table Builder, table M212261. Singapore Open Data Licence.
Sales volume. URA caveats, and URA sales by type from data.gov.sg (Singapore Open Data Licence).
STI. SGX quarter-end close. It is an input to the model by the owner's decision. The series is not offered for download. Source: SGX.
Phases. PropInsights Property Market Cycle Model, scripts/data/pmcm.mjs.

Sources, licences and release dates The cycle, topic by topic What members see

The property market runs in four phases, one way round

The model in numbers

Early Bull

Late Bull

Early Bear

Late Bear

Read three numbers

Check one rule

Move on, one way

Flag a doubtful quarter

The four signals, in plain words

Prices fall

Growth fades while sales fall

Shares recover or prices stop falling

Prices turn up

It cannot tell a dip from a bear on the day

A small change in a setting can change the answer

It was fitted to the past

It is not a forecast and not advice

What a member sees

Free for everyone