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The overall market

Understanding the property market cycle

What are the four phases of the property cycle, and what did each phase do to prices?

Turns the booms and falls of the price history into the Property Market Cycle Model, a written rule with four phases that move one way only: Early Bull, Late Bull, Early Bear, Late Bear. It asks what each phase did to prices and what action worked best in the past. The main finding: the model found four full cycles since 1996, with a fifth under way, and its timing test beat holding, though the test is in-sample.

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FreeKey figures

The cycle model finds four full cycles since 1996, and a fifth under way

Cycle model on the URA price index, 1996 Q3 to 2026 Q2. The timing test is in-sample.

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The cycle model finds four full cycles since 1996, and a fifth under wayCycle model on the URA price index, 1996 Q3 to 2026 Q2. The timing test is in-sample.Full cycles since 1996: 4. a fifth under way; its phase is for membersFull cycles since 1996Full cycles since 1996: 4. a fifth under way; its phase is for members4a fifth under way; its phaseis for membersLongest Early Bull: 20 qtrs. 2020 Q4 to 2025 Q3Longest Early BullLongest Early Bull: 20 qtrs. 2020 Q4 to 2025 Q320 qtrs2020 Q4 to 2025 Q3Longest Early Bear: 13 qtrs. 2013 Q4 to 2016 Q4Longest Early BearLongest Early Bear: 13 qtrs. 2013 Q4 to 2016 Q413 qtrs2013 Q4 to 2016 Q4Timing test: +405%. against +69% for holdingTiming testTiming test: +405%. against +69% for holding+405%against +69% for holding

Source: PropInsights cycle model on the URA price index (SingStat M212261). Cycle model rules applied to the index, 1996 Q3 to 2026 Q2. The timing test ignores costs and is in-sample.

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The cycle model finds four full cycles since 1996, and a fifth under way
MeasureValueNote
Full cycles since 19964a fifth under way; its phase is for members
Longest Early Bull20 qtrs2020 Q4 to 2025 Q3
Longest Early Bear13 qtrs2013 Q4 to 2016 Q4
Timing test+405%against +69% for holding

FreeFlowchart

The market moves one way round the four phases and never skips one

Strict one-way cycle

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The market moves one way round the four phases and never skips oneStrict one-way cycleEarly Bull. Prices turn up, sales riseEarly BullPrices turn up, sales riseLate Bull. Growth slows, sales fallLate BullGrowth slows, sales fallEarly Bear. Prices fall 0.9%+ a quarterEarly BearPrices fall 0.9%+ a quarterLate Bear. Falls slow, stocks reboundLate BearFalls slow, stocks reboundsales below a year ago and growth fadesprice falls 0.9% or morestocks up 10% or 2 quarters without a falltwo quarters of rising prices

Source: PropInsights cycle model (rule of 15 Oct 2026).

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The market moves one way round the four phases and never skips one
StepDetailLeads to
Early BullPrices turn up, sales riseLate Bull (sales below a year ago and growth fades)
Late BullGrowth slows, sales fallEarly Bear (price falls 0.9% or more)
Early BearPrices fall 0.9%+ a quarterLate Bear (stocks up 10% or 2 quarters without a fall)
Late BearFalls slow, stocks reboundEarly Bull (two quarters of rising prices)

FreeLine chart

Four full cycles since 1996, and a fifth under way

URA price index, 1Q2009 = 100. Shading: green Early Bull, amber Late Bull, red Early Bear, violet Late Bear.

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Four full cycles since 1996, and a fifth under wayURA price index, 1Q2009 = 100. Shading: green Early Bull, amber Late Bull, red Early Bear, violet Late Bear. The current phase is for members.Late Bull: 1996-Q1 to 1996-Q2Early Bear: 1996-Q3 to 1998-Q3Late Bear: 1998-Q4 to 1998-Q4Early Bull: 1999-Q1 to 1999-Q4Late Bull: 2000-Q1 to 2000-Q2Early Bear: 2000-Q3 to 2001-Q3Late Bear: 2001-Q4 to 2004-Q1Early Bull: 2004-Q2 to 2007-Q3Late Bull: 2007-Q4 to 2008-Q2Early Bear: 2008-Q3 to 2009-Q1Late Bear: 2009-Q2 to 2009-Q2Early Bull: 2009-Q3 to 2011-Q2Late Bull: 2011-Q3 to 2013-Q3Early Bear: 2013-Q4 to 2016-Q4Late Bear: 2017-Q1 to 2017-Q2Early Bull: 2017-Q3 to 2018-Q3Late Bull: 2018-Q4 to 2019-Q4Early Bear: 2020-Q1 to 2020-Q2Late Bear: 2020-Q3 to 2020-Q3Early Bull: 2020-Q4 to 2025-Q3Current phase: membersCurrent phase: members60901201501802102401996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026Price index: 1996-Q1 to 2026-Q2Price index, 2026 Q2: 219Price index1996-Q1: Price index 1221996-Q2: Price index 1301996-Q3: Price index 1271996-Q4: Price index 1241997-Q1: Price index 1191997-Q2: Price index 1181997-Q3: Price index 1131997-Q4: Price index 1081998-Q1: Price index 981998-Q2: Price index 901998-Q3: Price index 781998-Q4: Price index 721999-Q1: Price index 751999-Q2: Price index 841999-Q3: Price index 911999-Q4: Price index 962000-Q1: Price index 992000-Q2: Price index 1002000-Q3: Price index 982000-Q4: Price index 952001-Q1: Price index 912001-Q2: Price index 902001-Q3: Price index 882001-Q4: Price index 842002-Q1: Price index 832002-Q2: Price index 822002-Q3: Price index 832002-Q4: Price index 822003-Q1: Price index 822003-Q2: Price index 812003-Q3: Price index 812003-Q4: Price index 812004-Q1: Price index 802004-Q2: Price index 802004-Q3: Price index 812004-Q4: Price index 812005-Q1: Price index 822005-Q2: Price index 822005-Q3: Price index 832005-Q4: Price index 852006-Q1: Price index 862006-Q2: Price index 872006-Q3: Price index 902006-Q4: Price index 932007-Q1: Price index 982007-Q2: Price index 1062007-Q3: Price index 1142007-Q4: Price index 1222008-Q1: Price index 1272008-Q2: Price index 1272008-Q3: Price index 1242008-Q4: Price index 1162009-Q1: Price index 1002009-Q2: Price index 952009-Q3: Price index 1102009-Q4: Price index 1182010-Q1: Price index 1252010-Q2: Price index 1322010-Q3: Price index 1362010-Q4: Price index 1392011-Q1: Price index 1422011-Q2: Price index 1452011-Q3: Price index 1472011-Q4: Price index 1472012-Q1: Price index 1472012-Q2: Price index 1482012-Q3: Price index 1492012-Q4: Price index 1522013-Q1: Price index 1522013-Q2: Price index 1542013-Q3: Price index 1552013-Q4: Price index 1532014-Q1: Price index 1512014-Q2: Price index 1502014-Q3: Price index 1492014-Q4: Price index 1472015-Q1: Price index 1462015-Q2: Price index 1442015-Q3: Price index 1422015-Q4: Price index 1422016-Q1: Price index 1412016-Q2: Price index 1402016-Q3: Price index 1382016-Q4: Price index 1372017-Q1: Price index 1372017-Q2: Price index 1372017-Q3: Price index 1382017-Q4: Price index 1392018-Q1: Price index 1442018-Q2: Price index 1492018-Q3: Price index 1502018-Q4: Price index 1502019-Q1: Price index 1492019-Q2: Price index 1512019-Q3: Price index 1532019-Q4: Price index 1542020-Q1: Price index 1522020-Q2: Price index 1532020-Q3: Price index 1542020-Q4: Price index 1572021-Q1: Price index 1622021-Q2: Price index 1642021-Q3: Price index 1652021-Q4: Price index 1742022-Q1: Price index 1752022-Q2: Price index 1812022-Q3: Price index 1882022-Q4: Price index 1892023-Q1: Price index 1952023-Q2: Price index 1942023-Q3: Price index 1962023-Q4: Price index 2022024-Q1: Price index 2042024-Q2: Price index 2062024-Q3: Price index 2052024-Q4: Price index 2092025-Q1: Price index 2112025-Q2: Price index 2132025-Q3: Price index 2152025-Q4: Price index 2162026-Q1: Price index 2182026-Q2: Price index 219Cycle phase:Early BullLate BullEarly BearLate Bear

The current phase is for members. See plans

Source: URA price index via SingStat (M212261); phases from the PropInsights Property Market Cycle Model. Rules: see the cycle model page. Phases start in 1996 Q3. Data to 2026 Q2.

Licence: green class (Singapore Open Data Licence).

View the data as a table
Four full cycles since 1996, and a fifth under way
PeriodPrice index
1996-Q1122
1996-Q2130
1996-Q3127
1996-Q4124
1997-Q1119
1997-Q2118
1997-Q3113
1997-Q4108
1998-Q198
1998-Q290
1998-Q378
1998-Q472
1999-Q175
1999-Q284
1999-Q391
1999-Q496
2000-Q199
2000-Q2100
2000-Q398
2000-Q495
2001-Q191
2001-Q290
2001-Q388
2001-Q484
2002-Q183
2002-Q282
2002-Q383
2002-Q482
2003-Q182
2003-Q281
2003-Q381
2003-Q481
2004-Q180
2004-Q280
2004-Q381
2004-Q481
2005-Q182
2005-Q282
2005-Q383
2005-Q485
2006-Q186
2006-Q287
2006-Q390
2006-Q493
2007-Q198
2007-Q2106
2007-Q3114
2007-Q4122
2008-Q1127
2008-Q2127
2008-Q3124
2008-Q4116
2009-Q1100
2009-Q295
2009-Q3110
2009-Q4118
2010-Q1125
2010-Q2132
2010-Q3136
2010-Q4139
2011-Q1142
2011-Q2145
2011-Q3147
2011-Q4147
2012-Q1147
2012-Q2148
2012-Q3149
2012-Q4152
2013-Q1152
2013-Q2154
2013-Q3155
2013-Q4153
2014-Q1151
2014-Q2150
2014-Q3149
2014-Q4147
2015-Q1146
2015-Q2144
2015-Q3142
2015-Q4142
2016-Q1141
2016-Q2140
2016-Q3138
2016-Q4137
2017-Q1137
2017-Q2137
2017-Q3138
2017-Q4139
2018-Q1144
2018-Q2149
2018-Q3150
2018-Q4150
2019-Q1149
2019-Q2151
2019-Q3153
2019-Q4154
2020-Q1152
2020-Q2153
2020-Q3154
2020-Q4157
2021-Q1162
2021-Q2164
2021-Q3165
2021-Q4174
2022-Q1175
2022-Q2181
2022-Q3188
2022-Q4189
2023-Q1195
2023-Q2194
2023-Q3196
2023-Q4202
2024-Q1204
2024-Q2206
2024-Q3205
2024-Q4209
2025-Q1211
2025-Q2213
2025-Q3215
2025-Q4216
2026-Q1218
2026-Q2219

FreeTimeline

Every completed phase since 1996: Early Bulls ran longest and gained most

Green Early Bull, amber Late Bull, red Early Bear, violet Late Bear. q = quarters.

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Every completed phase since 1996: Early Bulls ran longest and gained mostGreen Early Bull, amber Late Bull, red Early Bear, violet Late Bear. q = quarters.1996200020042008201220162020202420282032Early BearLate BearEarly BullLate BullEarly BearLate BearEarly BullLate BullEarly BearLate BearEarly BullLate BullEarly BearLate BearEarly BullLate BullEarly BearLate BearEarly BullCurrent phaseEarly Bear: Q3 1996 to Q3 1998 (9 q, -38.4%)Q3 1996 to Q3 19989 q, -38.4%Late Bear: Q4 1998 (1 q, -8.7%)Q4 19981 q, -8.7%Early Bull: Q1 1999 to Q4 1999 (4 q, +34.1%)Q1 1999 to Q4 19994 q, +34.1%Late Bull: Q1 2000 to Q2 2000 (2 q, +4.7%)Q1 2000 to Q2 20002 q, +4.7%Early Bear: Q3 2000 to Q3 2001 (5 q, -12.7%)Q3 2000 to Q3 20015 q, -12.7%Late Bear: Q4 2001 to Q1 2004 (10 q, -8.3%)Q4 2001 to Q1 200410 q, -8.3%Early Bull: Q2 2004 to Q3 2007 (14 q, +42.5%)Q2 2004 to Q3 200714 q, +42.5%Late Bull: Q4 2007 to Q2 2008 (3 q, +10.9%)Q4 2007 to Q2 20083 q, +10.9%Early Bear: Q3 2008 to Q1 2009 (3 q, -21.2%)Q3 2008 to Q1 20093 q, -21.2%Late Bear: Q2 2009 (1 q, -4.7%)Q2 20091 q, -4.7%Early Bull: Q3 2009 to Q2 2011 (8 q, +52.3%)Q3 2009 to Q2 20118 q, +52.3%Late Bull: Q3 2011 to Q3 2013 (9 q, +6.5%)Q3 2011 to Q3 20139 q, +6.5%Early Bear: Q4 2013 to Q4 2016 (13 q, -11.3%)Q4 2013 to Q4 201613 q, -11.3%Late Bear: Q1 2017 to Q2 2017 (2 q, -0.4%)Q1 2017 to Q2 20172 q, -0.4%Early Bull: Q3 2017 to Q3 2018 (5 q, +9.6%)Q3 2017 to Q3 20185 q, +9.6%Late Bull: Q4 2018 to Q4 2019 (5 q, +2.6%)Q4 2018 to Q4 20195 q, +2.6%Early Bear: Q1 2020 to Q2 2020 (2 q, -0.7%)Q1 2020 to Q2 20202 q, -0.7%Late Bear: Q3 2020 (1 q, +0.8%)Q3 20201 q, +0.8%Early Bull: Q4 2020 to Q3 2025 (20 q, +39.9%)Q4 2020 to Q3 202520 q, +39.9%Current phase: Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 (for members)Q4 2025 to Q2 2026for members

The current phase is for members. See plans

Source: PropInsights cycle model on the URA price index (SingStat M212261). Completed phases from 1996 Q3; the current phase is for members. Change runs from the quarter before a phase starts to its last quarter.

Medians and counts only: no unit-level data.

View the data as a table
Every completed phase since 1996: Early Bulls ran longest and gained most
EventStartEndNote
Early Bear1996-071998-099 q, -38.4%
Late Bear1998-101998-121 q, -8.7%
Early Bull1999-011999-124 q, +34.1%
Late Bull2000-012000-062 q, +4.7%
Early Bear2000-072001-095 q, -12.7%
Late Bear2001-102004-0310 q, -8.3%
Early Bull2004-042007-0914 q, +42.5%
Late Bull2007-102008-063 q, +10.9%
Early Bear2008-072009-033 q, -21.2%
Late Bear2009-042009-061 q, -4.7%
Early Bull2009-072011-068 q, +52.3%
Late Bull2011-072013-099 q, +6.5%
Early Bear2013-102016-1213 q, -11.3%
Late Bear2017-012017-062 q, -0.4%
Early Bull2017-072018-095 q, +9.6%
Late Bull2018-102019-125 q, +2.6%
Early Bear2020-012020-062 q, -0.7%
Late Bear2020-072020-091 q, +0.8%
Early Bull2020-102025-0920 q, +39.9%
Current phase2025-102026-06for members

FreeFlowchart

What history favoured in each phase

Find the phase the model shows, then read the action that worked best in the past

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What history favoured in each phaseFind the phase the model shows, then read the action that worked best in the pastWhich phase does. the model show?Which phase doesthe model show?Early Bull. Buy. avg +35.7%. over 10.2 quartersEarly BullBuyavg +35.7%over 10.2 quartersLate Bull. Short term: sell?. Long term: hold. avg +6.2%. over 4.8 quartersLate BullShort term: sell?Long term: holdavg +6.2%over 4.8 quartersEarly Bear. Sell. avg -16.9%. over 6.4 quartersEarly BearSellavg -16.9%over 6.4 quartersLate Bear. Hold; may buy if you. accept the risk. avg -4.3%. over 3.0 quartersLate BearHold; may buy if youaccept the riskavg -4.3%over 3.0 quartersDashed arrows show the order of the phases. After a Late Bear the cycle starts again at Early Bull.Past actions, not advice. Averages cover the completed phases since 1996. The current phase is for members.

Source: PropInsights cycle model phases, completed runs from 1996 Q3. Averages from the completed phases of the cycle model. Past actions, not advice.

View the data as a table
What history favoured in each phase
StepDetailLeads to
Which phase doesthe model show?Early Bull; Late Bull; Early Bear; Late Bear
Early BullBuy. avg +35.7%. over 10.2 quartersLate Bull
Late BullShort term: sell?. Long term: hold. avg +6.2%. over 4.8 quartersEarly Bear
Early BearSell. avg -16.9%. over 6.4 quartersLate Bear
Late BearHold; may buy if you. accept the risk. avg -4.3%. over 3.0 quarters