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Understanding the property market cycle

FreeKey figures

The cycle model finds four full cycles since 1996, and a fifth under way

FreeKey figures

The cycle model finds four full cycles since 1996, and a fifth under way

Cycle model on the URA price index, 1996 Q3 to 2026 Q2. The timing test is in-sample.

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The cycle model finds four full cycles since 1996, and a fifth under wayCycle model on the URA price index, 1996 Q3 to 2026 Q2. The timing test is in-sample.Full cycles since 1996: 4. a fifth under way; its phase is for membersFull cycles since 1996Full cycles since 1996: 4. a fifth under way; its phase is for members4a fifth under way; its phaseis for membersLongest Early Bull: 20 qtrs. 2020 Q4 to 2025 Q3Longest Early BullLongest Early Bull: 20 qtrs. 2020 Q4 to 2025 Q320 qtrs2020 Q4 to 2025 Q3Longest Early Bear: 13 qtrs. 2013 Q4 to 2016 Q4Longest Early BearLongest Early Bear: 13 qtrs. 2013 Q4 to 2016 Q413 qtrs2013 Q4 to 2016 Q4Timing test: +405%. against +69% for holdingTiming testTiming test: +405%. against +69% for holding+405%against +69% for holding

Source: PropInsights cycle model on the URA price index (SingStat M212261). Cycle model rules applied to the index, 1996 Q3 to 2026 Q2. The timing test ignores costs and is in-sample.

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The cycle model finds four full cycles since 1996, and a fifth under way
MeasureValueNote
Full cycles since 19964a fifth under way; its phase is for members
Longest Early Bull20 qtrs2020 Q4 to 2025 Q3
Longest Early Bear13 qtrs2013 Q4 to 2016 Q4
Timing test+405%against +69% for holding
Topic
Understanding the property market cycle
Segment
The overall market
Chart type
Key figures
Access
FreeCSV download is for members.

Understanding the property market cycle

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