Sign inJoin

Understanding the property market cycle

FreeTimeline

Every completed phase since 1996: Early Bulls ran longest and gained most

FreeTimeline

Every completed phase since 1996: Early Bulls ran longest and gained most

Green Early Bull, amber Late Bull, red Early Bear, violet Late Bear. q = quarters.

CSV download: members

Every completed phase since 1996: Early Bulls ran longest and gained mostGreen Early Bull, amber Late Bull, red Early Bear, violet Late Bear. q = quarters.1996200020042008201220162020202420282032Early BearLate BearEarly BullLate BullEarly BearLate BearEarly BullLate BullEarly BearLate BearEarly BullLate BullEarly BearLate BearEarly BullLate BullEarly BearLate BearEarly BullCurrent phaseEarly Bear: Q3 1996 to Q3 1998 (9 q, -38.4%)Q3 1996 to Q3 19989 q, -38.4%Late Bear: Q4 1998 (1 q, -8.7%)Q4 19981 q, -8.7%Early Bull: Q1 1999 to Q4 1999 (4 q, +34.1%)Q1 1999 to Q4 19994 q, +34.1%Late Bull: Q1 2000 to Q2 2000 (2 q, +4.7%)Q1 2000 to Q2 20002 q, +4.7%Early Bear: Q3 2000 to Q3 2001 (5 q, -12.7%)Q3 2000 to Q3 20015 q, -12.7%Late Bear: Q4 2001 to Q1 2004 (10 q, -8.3%)Q4 2001 to Q1 200410 q, -8.3%Early Bull: Q2 2004 to Q3 2007 (14 q, +42.5%)Q2 2004 to Q3 200714 q, +42.5%Late Bull: Q4 2007 to Q2 2008 (3 q, +10.9%)Q4 2007 to Q2 20083 q, +10.9%Early Bear: Q3 2008 to Q1 2009 (3 q, -21.2%)Q3 2008 to Q1 20093 q, -21.2%Late Bear: Q2 2009 (1 q, -4.7%)Q2 20091 q, -4.7%Early Bull: Q3 2009 to Q2 2011 (8 q, +52.3%)Q3 2009 to Q2 20118 q, +52.3%Late Bull: Q3 2011 to Q3 2013 (9 q, +6.5%)Q3 2011 to Q3 20139 q, +6.5%Early Bear: Q4 2013 to Q4 2016 (13 q, -11.3%)Q4 2013 to Q4 201613 q, -11.3%Late Bear: Q1 2017 to Q2 2017 (2 q, -0.4%)Q1 2017 to Q2 20172 q, -0.4%Early Bull: Q3 2017 to Q3 2018 (5 q, +9.6%)Q3 2017 to Q3 20185 q, +9.6%Late Bull: Q4 2018 to Q4 2019 (5 q, +2.6%)Q4 2018 to Q4 20195 q, +2.6%Early Bear: Q1 2020 to Q2 2020 (2 q, -0.7%)Q1 2020 to Q2 20202 q, -0.7%Late Bear: Q3 2020 (1 q, +0.8%)Q3 20201 q, +0.8%Early Bull: Q4 2020 to Q3 2025 (20 q, +39.9%)Q4 2020 to Q3 202520 q, +39.9%Current phase: Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 (for members)Q4 2025 to Q2 2026for members

The current phase is for members. See plans

Source: PropInsights cycle model on the URA price index (SingStat M212261). Completed phases from 1996 Q3; the current phase is for members. Change runs from the quarter before a phase starts to its last quarter.

Medians and counts only: no unit-level data.

View the data as a table
Every completed phase since 1996: Early Bulls ran longest and gained most
EventStartEndNote
Early Bear1996-071998-099 q, -38.4%
Late Bear1998-101998-121 q, -8.7%
Early Bull1999-011999-124 q, +34.1%
Late Bull2000-012000-062 q, +4.7%
Early Bear2000-072001-095 q, -12.7%
Late Bear2001-102004-0310 q, -8.3%
Early Bull2004-042007-0914 q, +42.5%
Late Bull2007-102008-063 q, +10.9%
Early Bear2008-072009-033 q, -21.2%
Late Bear2009-042009-061 q, -4.7%
Early Bull2009-072011-068 q, +52.3%
Late Bull2011-072013-099 q, +6.5%
Early Bear2013-102016-1213 q, -11.3%
Late Bear2017-012017-062 q, -0.4%
Early Bull2017-072018-095 q, +9.6%
Late Bull2018-102019-125 q, +2.6%
Early Bear2020-012020-062 q, -0.7%
Late Bear2020-072020-091 q, +0.8%
Early Bull2020-102025-0920 q, +39.9%
Current phase2025-102026-06for members
Topic
Understanding the property market cycle
Segment
The overall market
Chart type
Timeline
Access
FreeCSV download is for members.

Understanding the property market cycle

More charts in this topic

Previous chartFour full cycles since 1996, and a fifth under wayNext chartWhat history favoured in each phase