Resources
Timing the Property Market (2026 Edition)
A book about where the Singapore property market stands in its cycle, and what the record says about timing. It has 6 parts and 25 chapters. This site holds its charts and the data behind them.
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Buy link: to be added.
The owner has not set where the book is sold. BUY_URL in src/components/market/book.ts holds the address.
The text of the book is separate from this site. The site has the charts, the numbers behind them and a short summary of each chapter. The charts are drawn from current data, so their latest figures can be newer than the book.
Contents
The parts and chapters, and where they are on the site
Part 1. The Overall Market
Part 2. Non-Landed Residential
Part 3. Landed Residential
Part 4. Areas and Regions
Part 5. Commercial and Industrial
Part 6. Finding Attractive Investments
Conclusion and appendix
The number in brackets is the number of charts of the chapter on this site. See all charts. The cycle model.
Data
Data gaps
These gaps and limits apply to the data behind the charts. They come from the site's data notes (docs/DATA.md).
Introduction
The Introduction says what is new in this edition: fourteen more years of history, the policies that shaped the market, an updated cycle model and policy marks on the price charts. It shows the long rise in the price index and the six parts of the book, from the whole market to single segments and then to finding a deal.
- The market peaked in 2013 Q3 and then fell for 15 quarters.
- Since 1996 the price index fell 10% or more four times, and went through four full cycles.
- A buyer at the 1996 Q2 peak waited 14 years, until 2010 Q2, to see the index at that level again.
- The book has six parts: overall market, non-landed, landed, areas and regions, commercial and industrial, finding investments.
- Knowing where you stand in the cycle does not guarantee a gain. The record shows that it improves your odds.
FreeKey figures
Prices tripled in 27 years despite four falls of 10% or more
Falls are peak to trough in the price index. Index from 1998 Q4.
Source: URA via SingStat (table M212261); Property Market Cycle Model. 1998 Q4 to 2026 Q2. Falls, cycles and wait counted on the price index from 1996.. Data to 2026 Q2.
Licence: green class (Singapore Open Data Licence).
View the data as a table
| Measure | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Rise since 1998 Q4 | x3.1 | Index to 2026 Q2 |
| Falls of 10% or more | 4 | Peak to trough since 1996 |
| Full cycles since 1996 | 4 | Early Bull to Early Bull |
| Wait to regain 1996 peak | 14 years | 1996 Q2 to 2010 Q2 |
FreeFlowchart
Market data runs from the whole market to single segments, then to finding a deal
Six groups. Read them in order, or jump to the segment you care about.
Source: PropInsights: how the market data is organised.
View the data as a table
| Step | Detail | Leads to |
|---|---|---|
| 1. The overall market | History, cycle, volumes. Rates, supply, rent or buy | 2. Condos and apartments |
| 2. Condos and apartments | HDB, completed, freehold. Rents, sales, sub sales, buyers | 3. Landed homes |
| 3. Landed homes | Landed vs non-landed, types. Rents, vacancy, freehold | 4. Areas and regions |
| 4. Areas and regions | CCR, RCR and OCR prices. Rents, yields, property types | 5. Commercial and industrial |
| 5. Commercial and industrial | Office, shops, industrial. Prices, rents, vacancy, supply | 6. Finding deals |
| 6. Finding deals | Costs and stamp duties. Value and yield screens |
Where to find good deals
The cycle tells you whether it is a good time to act, but every purchase is one unit in one project. This chapter asks how to find the specific deal. Its answer is six checks in order, done before you talk to any agent, with the costs and loan limits worked out early and a yield screen to find places to start looking.
- Six checks, in order: cycle phase, segment and region, comparable sales, the unit, income and holding cost, costs and loans.
- On a S$2.0m home, Buyer's Stamp Duty is S$69,600 (3.5%). ABSD adds S$400,000 for a citizen's second home (20%) and S$1.2m for a foreigner (60%). Rules as of 16 Oct 2026.
- A first housing loan can be up to 75% of the price, with at least 5% in cash. The Total Debt Servicing Ratio caps all debt payments at 55% of gross monthly income.
- Median project gross yields run from 2.5% in Tanglin to 4.0% in the Downtown Core. Each shaded area is a median of 5 to 31 projects.
- A high yield can reflect small units, short leases or a thin sample. It is a gross yield, before vacancy, fees, tax and the cost of finance.
FreeKey figures
Buying costs are paid on day one; 16 of 21 policy changes since 1996 tightened the rules
Rules as checked on 16 Oct 2026 (IRAS, MAS). Policy steps: private-housing measures, May 1996 to Jul 2025.
Source: IRAS (stamp duty), MAS (loan limits); policy steps from MND, MAS, IRAS and MOF releases. Rules checked 16 Oct 2026; policy list in the policy timeline (data/catalog/pmcm-policy-events.csv). Data to 2025 Q3.
View the data as a table
| Measure | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Policy steps, 1996-2025 | 21 | 16 tighter, 5 looser |
| BSD on a S$2.0m home | S$69,600 | 3.5%, rates from Feb 2023 |
| ABSD, citizen 2nd home | 20% | since 27 Apr 2023 |
| Loan limit, first loan | 75% | since Jul 2018 |
FreeFlowchart
Six checks come before the decision, and a failed check sends you back
Order of research for one purchase
Source: PropInsights: the six steps of the deal checklist.
View the data as a table
| Step | Detail | Leads to |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Cycle phase | Where are we in the cycle? | 2. Segment, region |
| 2. Segment, region | Landed or not; CCR/RCR/OCR | 3. Comparable sales |
| 3. Comparable sales | Real sales, not asking | 4. The unit |
| 4. The unit | Floor, stack and view | 5. Income, holding cost |
| 5. Income, holding cost | Yield and vacancy | 6. Costs and loans |
| 6. Costs and loans | Stamp duty, LTV, TDSR | Does the deal still |
| Does the deal still | work at this price? | Talk to agents (yes); Go back to step 2 (no) |
| Talk to agents | and view homes | |
| Go back to step 2 | or walk away |
Freebars
On a S$2.0m home, stamp duty runs from S$69,600 to S$1.27m depending on who buys
Stamp duty by buyer, and how a first-home buyer pays: a bank loan of up to 75% of the price. Rules of 16 Oct 2026.
A S$2.0m home pays S$69,600 of Buyer's Stamp Duty, which is 3.5% of the price. A citizen who buys it as a second home pays S$400,000 of ABSD on top (20%); a foreigner pays S$1.2m (60%).
Source: PropInsights calculation from IRAS (BSD, ABSD) and MAS (LTV, minimum cash) rules as of 16 Oct 2026. Payment split: a first-home buyer with a bank loan; valuation is assumed equal to price. Excludes other fees. The cash part must be at least 5%..
View the data as a table
| Bar | Segment | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Citizen, first home | Buyer's Stamp Duty (BSD) | S$69,600 |
| Citizen, second home | Buyer's Stamp Duty (BSD) | S$69,600 |
| Citizen, second home | Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) | S$400,000 |
| Foreigner | Buyer's Stamp Duty (BSD) | S$69,600 |
| Foreigner | Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) | S$1,200,000 |
| How the S$2.0m is paid | Bank loan, up to 75% | S$1,500,000 |
| How the S$2.0m is paid | Cash, at least 5% | S$100,000 |
| How the S$2.0m is paid | Rest of the down payment, 20% | S$400,000 |
MemberMap
Median project yields run from 2.5% in Tanglin to 4.0% in the Downtown Core
Median gross yield of condo projects, by planning area. Projects with 8 or more resales in the 12 months to Sep 2026.
Yields are lowest in Tanglin, Newton and Bukit Timah (2.5% to 2.9%) and highest in the Downtown Core and Geylang (4.0% and 3.7%). Each shaded area is a median of 5 to 31 projects, so one unusual project can move it.
Source: PropInsights calculation from URA rental contracts (2026 Q2) and transaction records (Oct 2025 to Sep 2026); planning area from the URA Master Plan 2019 boundary (data.gov.sg). Screen output, not a recommendation. Water catchment, industrial, island and other areas with fewer than 5 projects have no shading. Table: area_gross_yield.. Preview only: the full chart, table and CSV are for members. Preview of the first part. The full chart, table and CSV are for members.
Medians and counts only: no unit-level data.
Conclusion: what the 30-year record says about timing
The 30-year record gives four lessons: the cycle is real and slow, Early Bulls are the best time to buy, buying at the peak costs years, and rules of thumb should be checked against the data. Government measures changed the shape of the cycle: the risk has moved from a crash to a long wait.
- Four full cycles took 21, 21, 32 and 13 quarters, an average of nearly 22 quarters (about 5.4 years).
- In the five Early Bull phases since 1999 the index rose between 10% and 52%. In the five Early Bear phases since 1996 it fell between 1% and 38%.
- Peak buyers waited 8 to 56 quarters for the index to return to their entry level. The buyer at the 2013 Q3 peak waited 29 quarters, until 2020 Q4.
- The peak-to-trough fall was 11.6% in 2013 to 2017, against 44.9% in 1996 to 1998.
- The freehold premium averaged 30.7% from 1995 to 2012 and 13.9% since 2021. Landed grew 7.2% a year over 51 years and non-landed 6.0%, and since 2012 Q2 the two are almost level.
FreeKey figures
Four lessons, four numbers: slow cycles, long waits, milder falls, a falling premium
URA price index to 2026 Q2; freehold premium = resale median psf, freehold over 99-year leasehold condos, average of quarters.
View the data as a table
| Measure | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Average cycle length | 5.4 years | 4 cycles since 1999 Q1 |
| Wait after the 2013 peak | 29 qtrs | index regained in 2020 Q4 |
| Peak-to-trough fall | 11.6% | 2013-17 (1996-98: 44.9%) |
| Premium since 2021 Q4 | 13.9% | 30.7% avg, 1995-2012 Q1 |
Freebars
Peak buyers waited 8 to 56 quarters for the index to return to their entry level
Quarters from each peak to the trough, then to the first quarter at or above the peak level. Index only: no costs, rent or interest.
The buyer at the 2013 peak waited 29 quarters, until 2020 Q4, to see the index above the purchase level again.
Source: PropInsights calculation from the URA private home price index via SingStat (ppi.all), 1996 Q2 to 2020 Q4. Peaks and troughs as in the cycle model.
View the data as a table
| Bar | Segment | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1996 Q2 peak | Peak to trough | 10 |
| 1996 Q2 peak | Trough back to the peak level | 46 |
| 2000 Q2 peak | Peak to trough | 15 |
| 2000 Q2 peak | Trough back to the peak level | 13 |
| 2008 Q2 peak | Peak to trough | 4 |
| 2008 Q2 peak | Trough back to the peak level | 4 |
| 2013 Q3 peak | Peak to trough | 15 |
| 2013 Q3 peak | Trough back to the peak level | 14 |
FreeFlowchart
The numbers to check depend on the goal: income, price gain or a home to live in
A reading guide, not personal advice.
Source: Regional price indices (URA via SingStat, 2012 Q2 to 2026 Q2), vacancy (URA, 2026 Q2) and the PropInsights yield screen (resales Oct 2025 to Sep 2026). Rules as of 16 Oct 2026 (IRAS, MAS). Series: ppi.nonlanded.ccr, ppi.nonlanded.rcr, ppi.nonlanded.ocr, vacancy.private.ccr, vacancy.private.ocr..
View the data as a table
| Step | Detail | Leads to |
|---|---|---|
| What is your goal? | Rental income; Price gain; A home to live in | |
| Rental income | Look at yield, vacancy | |
| Price gain | Phase, then segment | |
| A home to live in | Costs and loan limits | |
| Look at yield, vacancy | Median gross yield: 3.35%. By region: 3.2% to 3.4%. CCR vacancy 8.3%, OCR 5.6% | Whatever the goal, compare the price with similar sales |
| Phase, then segment | Current phase: members. Since 2012 Q2, non-landed:. OCR +78.8%, RCR +48.5%,. CCR +16.0% | Whatever the goal, compare the price with similar sales |
| Costs and loan limits | BSD S$69,600 on S$2.0m. ABSD 20% on a second home. Loan up to 75% of price. TDSR cap 55% of income | Whatever the goal, compare the price with similar sales |
| Whatever the goal, compare the price with similar sales | and check the costs before you decide |
Appendix: sources, definitions, the cycle model rules, policy measures
The Appendix lists where the numbers come from and the gaps in them, defines the terms, gives the rules of the Property Market Cycle Model and lists the 21 private-housing policy measures from 1996 to 2025. It is the place to check a source, a date or a rule.
- Home transactions are missing from May 2012 to August 2021. Commercial and industrial transaction records stop in March 2012, and buyer profile stops after 2013 Q1.
- The cycle model moves one way only: Early Bull, Late Bull, Early Bear, Late Bear, then Early Bull. It never goes back and never skips a stage.
- A fall of 0.9% or more in a quarter is the signal for a bear phase. The 2020 Q1 fall was 0.98%, so a 1.0% threshold would have missed it.
- The rule reproduces the first edition's model in 67 of 67 quarters from 1996 Q3 to 2013 Q1. After 2012 there is no reference answer.
- Of the 21 policy measures, 16 tightened and 5 eased. The impact rating from 1 to 3 is the author's judgment, not a measurement.
FreeTimeline
Official series run to 2026 Q2; transaction records have a gap, May 2012 to Aug 2021
Years covered by each source. Red bars are gaps in the data.
Source: Source ranges (URA, JTC, HDB, MAS via SingStat; URA via data.gov.sg; URA REALIS exports; URA Data Service). Bars end at the last period used: official quarterly series 2026 Q2; transaction records and interest rates September 2026.
View the data as a table
| Event | Start | End | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home price index | 1975-01 | 2026-Q2 | |
| Regional price indices | 2004-01 | 2026-Q2 | |
| Home rental index | 1990-01 | 2026-Q2 | |
| HDB Resale Price Index | 1990-01 | 2026-Q2 | |
| Homes available, vacant | 1988-01 | 2026-Q2 | |
| Pipeline supply | 1993-Q2 | 2026-Q2 | |
| Sales by type of sale | 1999-Q4 | 2026-Q2 | |
| Developer launches, sales | 2004-01 | 2026-Q2 | |
| Commercial, industrial | 1975-01 | 2026-Q2 | |
| Interest rates (SORA 2005+) | 1988-01 | 2026-09 | |
| Straits Times Index | 1995-01 | 2026-Q2 | |
| REALIS exports | 1995-01 | 2012-04 | |
| URA Data Service | 2021-09 | 2026-09 | |
| Type, tenure, region series | 1975-01 | 2013-Q1 | |
| Home deals missing | 2012-05 | 2021-08 | |
| Commercial deals missing | 2012-04 | 2026-09 | |
| Buyer profile missing | 2013-04 | 2026-09 |
FreeFlowchart
Each phase has one exit test, and the order never changes
Tested every quarter on the price index, the Straits Times Index and sales. Full rules in the table.
The model moves in one direction only: Early Bull, Late Bull, Early Bear, Late Bear, then Early Bull. It never goes back and never skips a stage.
Source: PropInsights Property Market Cycle Model (rules of 15 Oct 2026; scripts/data/pmcm.mjs). Price index URA via SingStat; Straits Times Index SGX (red licence class, owner decision of 15 Oct 2026); sales URA.
View the data as a table
| Step | Detail | Leads to |
|---|---|---|
| Early Bull | Slowdown signal | |
| Slowdown signal | or 0.9% fall? | Late Bull (yes) |
| Late Bull | Prices fall | |
| Prices fall | 0.9% or more? | Early Bear (yes) |
| Early Bear | Stocks +10%, or 2 | |
| Stocks +10%, or 2 | quarters no fall? | Late Bear (yes) |
| Late Bear | Two rising | |
| Two rising | quarters? | Early Bull (yes) |
FreeTimeline
16 of the 21 measures tightened; the five easing steps came in 1997 to 2005 and 2017
Date of announcement. Red = tighter, green = looser. Impact is a PropInsights rating, 1 (minor) to 3 (major).
Impact is a PropInsights rating from 1 (minor) to 3 (major) of how big each measure was for the private market. It is a judgment, not a measurement.
Source: MOF, MAS, MND, IRAS and National Archives of Singapore releases (links in the policy timeline). Lane grouping and impact ratings are PropInsights ratings. Data: data/catalog/pmcm-policy-events.csv..
Medians and counts only: no unit-level data.
View the data as a table
| Event | Start | End | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABSD introduced | 2011-12-07 | impact 3 | |
| BSD top rate to 4% | 2018-02-19 | impact 1 | |
| BSD: 5% and 6% bands | 2023-02-14 | impact 1 | |
| ABSD raised | 2023-04-26 | impact 2 | |
| SSD to 4 years, 16% | 2025-07-03 | impact 2 | |
| Interest-only loans ended | 2009-09-14 | impact 1 | |
| 35-year loan tenure cap | 2012-10-05 | impact 2 | |
| TDSR introduced (60%) | 2013-06-28 | impact 3 | |
| TDSR rate floor, HDB LTV | 2022-09-29 | impact 2 | |
| Anti-speculation package | 1996-05-14 | impact 3 | |
| SSD introduced, LTV 80% | 2010-02-19 | impact 3 | |
| SSD 3 years, LTV 70% | 2010-08-30 | impact 2 | |
| SSD 4 years, LTV 60% | 2011-01-13 | impact 3 | |
| Cooling measures, Jan 2013 | 2013-01-11 | impact 3 | |
| ABSD up, LTV cut | 2018-07-05 | impact 3 | |
| ABSD up, TDSR 55% | 2021-12-15 | impact 2 | |
| Seller surcharge suspended | 1997-11-18 | impact 1 | |
| Land sales, duty deferred | 1998-06-29 | impact 2 | |
| Off-budget package | 2001-10-12 | impact 2 | |
| Policy review: LTV 90% | 2005-07-19 | impact 2 | |
| SSD 3 years, TDSR eased | 2017-03-10 | impact 2 |