Should you buy residential, commercial or industrial property?
Do offices, shops and factories make better investments than homes?
Asks whether offices, shops and factories make better investments than homes. It puts the URA and JTC price indices on one base (1998 Q4 = 100) and compares 27 years of growth, swings and falls. Homes gave the best capital growth with the smallest swings, but the winner changed from cycle to cycle. Property that is not a home also needs five checks: tenure, who may buy, costs, exit and rent against price.
FreeKey figures
From 1998 to 2026 homes grew fastest: 4.2% a year, against 0.4% for offices
Compound growth of price indices, 1998 Q4 to 2026 Q2. URA and JTC via SingStat.
Source: URA and JTC via SingStat. Growth rates and the office fall are the PropInsights calculation from the quarterly indices. Data to 2026 Q2.
Licence: green class (Singapore Open Data Licence).
View the data as a table
| Measure | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Residential, a year | 4.2% | 1998 Q4 to 2026 Q2 |
| Industrial, a year | 2.7% | 1998 Q4 to 2026 Q2 |
| Office, a year | 0.4% | 1998 Q4 to 2026 Q2 |
| Office worst fall | -42.9% | 2000 Q4 to 2004 Q1 |
FreeLine chart
Residential prices have tripled since 1998. Industrial prices doubled and office prices rose 11%
Price index, 1998 Q4 = 100. Retail (central region) starts in 2011 and is published on the same base. URA and JTC, to 2026 Q2.
The office index peaked at 163.3 in 1996 Q3. The retail index peaked at 130.7 in 2014 Q4. Industrial is not one clean series: JTC changed its method in 2014 Q4 and there is no figure for 2001 Q4.
Source: URA and JTC via SingStat. Residential: URA private residential price index (M212261), rebased. Industrial: JTC (M212181), rebased.. Data to 2026 Q2.
Licence: green class (Singapore Open Data Licence).
View the data as a table
| Period | Residential | Office | Industrial | Retail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998-Q4 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 1999-Q1 | 105 | 92 | 96 | |
| 1999-Q2 | 118 | 92 | 92 | |
| 1999-Q3 | 127 | 91 | 87 | |
| 1999-Q4 | 134 | 99 | 95 | |
| 2000-Q1 | 138 | 105 | 96 | |
| 2000-Q2 | 140 | 117 | 106 | |
| 2000-Q3 | 137 | 119 | 107 | |
| 2000-Q4 | 133 | 126 | 111 | |
| 2001-Q1 | 127 | 115 | 112 | |
| 2001-Q2 | 126 | 111 | 106 | |
| 2001-Q3 | 123 | 107 | 101 | |
| 2001-Q4 | 117 | 99 | ||
| 2002-Q1 | 116 | 94 | 92 | |
| 2002-Q2 | 115 | 90 | 89 | |
| 2002-Q3 | 116 | 87 | 89 | |
| 2002-Q4 | 115 | 82 | 86 | |
| 2003-Q1 | 114 | 80 | 83 | |
| 2003-Q2 | 113 | 77 | 81 | |
| 2003-Q3 | 113 | 76 | 79 | |
| 2003-Q4 | 113 | 74 | 78 | |
| 2004-Q1 | 112 | 72 | 78 | |
| 2004-Q2 | 112 | 72 | 78 | |
| 2004-Q3 | 113 | 73 | 79 | |
| 2004-Q4 | 114 | 73 | 79 | |
| 2005-Q1 | 115 | 74 | 79 | |
| 2005-Q2 | 115 | 74 | 80 | |
| 2005-Q3 | 117 | 75 | 81 | |
| 2005-Q4 | 118 | 76 | 81 | |
| 2006-Q1 | 120 | 77 | 81 | |
| 2006-Q2 | 122 | 80 | 82 | |
| 2006-Q3 | 125 | 83 | 83 | |
| 2006-Q4 | 130 | 89 | 86 | |
| 2007-Q1 | 137 | 93 | 89 | |
| 2007-Q2 | 148 | 101 | 97 | |
| 2007-Q3 | 160 | 110 | 100 | |
| 2007-Q4 | 171 | 118 | 106 | |
| 2008-Q1 | 177 | 120 | 109 | |
| 2008-Q2 | 177 | 121 | 114 | |
| 2008-Q3 | 173 | 116 | 115 | |
| 2008-Q4 | 163 | 110 | 107 | |
| 2009-Q1 | 140 | 97 | 97 | |
| 2009-Q2 | 133 | 93 | 92 | |
| 2009-Q3 | 154 | 91 | 90 | |
| 2009-Q4 | 166 | 92 | 92 | |
| 2010-Q1 | 175 | 94 | 93 | |
| 2010-Q2 | 184 | 98 | 99 | |
| 2010-Q3 | 190 | 104 | 107 | |
| 2010-Q4 | 195 | 109 | 114 | |
| 2011-Q1 | 199 | 115 | 123 | 117 |
| 2011-Q2 | 203 | 119 | 130 | 117 |
| 2011-Q3 | 206 | 123 | 139 | 121 |
| 2011-Q4 | 206 | 125 | 145 | 121 |
| 2012-Q1 | 206 | 125 | 155 | 122 |
| 2012-Q2 | 207 | 123 | 168 | 123 |
| 2012-Q3 | 208 | 126 | 183 | 124 |
| 2012-Q4 | 212 | 126 | 182 | 124 |
| 2013-Q1 | 213 | 129 | 190 | 126 |
| 2013-Q2 | 215 | 131 | 189 | 128 |
| 2013-Q3 | 216 | 132 | 195 | 129 |
| 2013-Q4 | 214 | 133 | 188 | 130 |
| 2014-Q1 | 212 | 134 | 195 | 130 |
| 2014-Q2 | 209 | 134 | 197 | 129 |
| 2014-Q3 | 208 | 136 | 195 | 129 |
| 2014-Q4 | 206 | 139 | 195 | 131 |
| 2015-Q1 | 203 | 139 | 196 | 131 |
| 2015-Q2 | 202 | 139 | 195 | 130 |
| 2015-Q3 | 199 | 139 | 194 | 130 |
| 2015-Q4 | 198 | 139 | 191 | 130 |
| 2016-Q1 | 197 | 138 | 187 | 127 |
| 2016-Q2 | 196 | 136 | 182 | 123 |
| 2016-Q3 | 193 | 136 | 179 | 122 |
| 2016-Q4 | 192 | 135 | 174 | 123 |
| 2017-Q1 | 191 | 129 | 170 | 118 |
| 2017-Q2 | 191 | 128 | 167 | 114 |
| 2017-Q3 | 192 | 128 | 166 | 113 |
| 2017-Q4 | 194 | 131 | 164 | 112 |
| 2018-Q1 | 202 | 133 | 164 | 112 |
| 2018-Q2 | 208 | 136 | 164 | 111 |
| 2018-Q3 | 209 | 136 | 164 | 111 |
| 2018-Q4 | 209 | 139 | 164 | 113 |
| 2019-Q1 | 208 | 143 | 164 | 110 |
| 2019-Q2 | 211 | 144 | 164 | 111 |
| 2019-Q3 | 214 | 139 | 164 | 112 |
| 2019-Q4 | 215 | 138 | 163 | 114 |
| 2020-Q1 | 213 | 133 | 163 | 111 |
| 2020-Q2 | 213 | 127 | 161 | 109 |
| 2020-Q3 | 215 | 127 | 157 | 111 |
| 2020-Q4 | 220 | 123 | 159 | 109 |
| 2021-Q1 | 227 | 120 | 160 | 105 |
| 2021-Q2 | 229 | 121 | 163 | 102 |
| 2021-Q3 | 231 | 118 | 164 | 102 |
| 2021-Q4 | 243 | 116 | 166 | 104 |
| 2022-Q1 | 244 | 121 | 169 | 103 |
| 2022-Q2 | 253 | 115 | 172 | 102 |
| 2022-Q3 | 263 | 112 | 175 | 98 |
| 2022-Q4 | 264 | 116 | 178 | 96 |
| 2023-Q1 | 272 | 116 | 181 | 95 |
| 2023-Q2 | 272 | 117 | 184 | 96 |
| 2023-Q3 | 274 | 118 | 186 | 96 |
| 2023-Q4 | 282 | 111 | 187 | 97 |
| 2024-Q1 | 286 | 110 | 187 | 99 |
| 2024-Q2 | 288 | 113 | 189 | 98 |
| 2024-Q3 | 286 | 114 | 190 | 100 |
| 2024-Q4 | 293 | 113 | 194 | 98 |
| 2025-Q1 | 295 | 113 | 197 | 100 |
| 2025-Q2 | 298 | 112 | 200 | 100 |
| 2025-Q3 | 301 | 112 | 201 | 100 |
| 2025-Q4 | 303 | 111 | 204 | 101 |
| 2026-Q1 | 305 | 111 | 206 | 104 |
| 2026-Q2 | 307 | 111 | 207 | 104 |
FreeTimeline
Residential won three of five cycles; office and industrial won one each
Bars: price index cycles. Blue bar: residential won. Grey bar: office or industrial won.
Source: URA and JTC via SingStat. Cycles trough to trough and the winner on price are the PropInsights calculation. SSD: IRAS. JTC lease change: JTC, March 2025..
View the data as a table
| Event | Start | End | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential +12.3% | 1998-10-01 | 2004-01-01 | |
| Office +29.5% | 2004-01-01 | 2009-04-01 | |
| Industrial +81.1% | 2009-04-01 | 2017-04-01 | |
| Residential +12.6% | 2017-04-01 | 2020-07-01 | |
| Residential +42.7% | 2020-07-01 | 2026-04-01 | |
| Industrial price peak | 2014-04-01 | ||
| SSD on industrial property | 2013-01-12 | ||
| JTC index method change | 2014-10-01 | ||
| JTC: +3 years, new leases | 2025-03-06 |
FreeLine chart
Office rents doubled and home rents rose 127%, but industrial rents rose only 51%
Rent index, 1998 Q4 = 100. Residential, office (central region) and industrial (JTC) rent indices, rebased. To 2026 Q2.
Source: URA and JTC via SingStat. Residential: URA rental index (M212261 family); office: URA, central region; industrial: JTC (M212171). All rebased to 1998 Q4.. Data to 2026 Q2.
Licence: green class (Singapore Open Data Licence).
View the data as a table
| Period | Residential | Office | Industrial |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998-Q4 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 1999-Q1 | 95 | 96 | 93 |
| 1999-Q2 | 96 | 92 | 87 |
| 1999-Q3 | 97 | 90 | 84 |
| 1999-Q4 | 98 | 91 | 85 |
| 2000-Q1 | 98 | 93 | 85 |
| 2000-Q2 | 100 | 97 | 87 |
| 2000-Q3 | 102 | 100 | 86 |
| 2000-Q4 | 99 | 102 | 85 |
| 2001-Q1 | 98 | 104 | 84 |
| 2001-Q2 | 98 | 104 | 83 |
| 2001-Q3 | 97 | 101 | 83 |
| 2001-Q4 | 96 | 94 | 82 |
| 2002-Q1 | 95 | 92 | 81 |
| 2002-Q2 | 95 | 88 | 79 |
| 2002-Q3 | 95 | 85 | 77 |
| 2002-Q4 | 95 | 83 | 76 |
| 2003-Q1 | 92 | 80 | 74 |
| 2003-Q2 | 91 | 78 | 73 |
| 2003-Q3 | 90 | 75 | 71 |
| 2003-Q4 | 90 | 74 | 69 |
| 2004-Q1 | 89 | 73 | 69 |
| 2004-Q2 | 89 | 74 | 69 |
| 2004-Q3 | 90 | 76 | 70 |
| 2004-Q4 | 90 | 76 | 70 |
| 2005-Q1 | 91 | 78 | 71 |
| 2005-Q2 | 91 | 79 | 71 |
| 2005-Q3 | 92 | 81 | 72 |
| 2005-Q4 | 93 | 86 | 74 |
| 2006-Q1 | 94 | 88 | 75 |
| 2006-Q2 | 96 | 94 | 75 |
| 2006-Q3 | 101 | 100 | 75 |
| 2006-Q4 | 106 | 112 | 77 |
| 2007-Q1 | 114 | 124 | 81 |
| 2007-Q2 | 126 | 138 | 87 |
| 2007-Q3 | 140 | 158 | 95 |
| 2007-Q4 | 150 | 175 | 102 |
| 2008-Q1 | 158 | 188 | 108 |
| 2008-Q2 | 162 | 200 | 110 |
| 2008-Q3 | 161 | 198 | 111 |
| 2008-Q4 | 152 | 185 | 106 |
| 2009-Q1 | 139 | 166 | 100 |
| 2009-Q2 | 132 | 153 | 95 |
| 2009-Q3 | 129 | 146 | 92 |
| 2009-Q4 | 130 | 142 | 92 |
| 2010-Q1 | 136 | 142 | 94 |
| 2010-Q2 | 144 | 144 | 95 |
| 2010-Q3 | 150 | 152 | 100 |
| 2010-Q4 | 153 | 159 | 105 |
| 2011-Q1 | 155 | 168 | 111 |
| 2011-Q2 | 157 | 171 | 117 |
| 2011-Q3 | 159 | 172 | 120 |
| 2011-Q4 | 159 | 173 | 121 |
| 2012-Q1 | 160 | 172 | 123 |
| 2012-Q2 | 160 | 171 | 126 |
| 2012-Q3 | 162 | 171 | 128 |
| 2012-Q4 | 163 | 171 | 133 |
| 2013-Q1 | 164 | 170 | 134 |
| 2013-Q2 | 164 | 171 | 133 |
| 2013-Q3 | 165 | 172 | 139 |
| 2013-Q4 | 164 | 173 | 140 |
| 2014-Q1 | 163 | 177 | 140 |
| 2014-Q2 | 162 | 182 | 140 |
| 2014-Q3 | 161 | 187 | 138 |
| 2014-Q4 | 159 | 190 | 137 |
| 2015-Q1 | 156 | 191 | 137 |
| 2015-Q2 | 155 | 186 | 136 |
| 2015-Q3 | 154 | 181 | 135 |
| 2015-Q4 | 152 | 177 | 134 |
| 2016-Q1 | 150 | 174 | 130 |
| 2016-Q2 | 149 | 168 | 128 |
| 2016-Q3 | 147 | 166 | 125 |
| 2016-Q4 | 146 | 163 | 125 |
| 2017-Q1 | 144 | 157 | 124 |
| 2017-Q2 | 144 | 156 | 123 |
| 2017-Q3 | 144 | 159 | 121 |
| 2017-Q4 | 143 | 163 | 121 |
| 2018-Q1 | 143 | 168 | 121 |
| 2018-Q2 | 145 | 170 | 121 |
| 2018-Q3 | 145 | 175 | 121 |
| 2018-Q4 | 144 | 176 | 121 |
| 2019-Q1 | 145 | 175 | 121 |
| 2019-Q2 | 147 | 177 | 121 |
| 2019-Q3 | 147 | 176 | 121 |
| 2019-Q4 | 146 | 170 | 121 |
| 2020-Q1 | 147 | 169 | 121 |
| 2020-Q2 | 145 | 169 | 120 |
| 2020-Q3 | 145 | 161 | 119 |
| 2020-Q4 | 145 | 156 | 119 |
| 2021-Q1 | 148 | 161 | 120 |
| 2021-Q2 | 152 | 163 | 120 |
| 2021-Q3 | 155 | 157 | 121 |
| 2021-Q4 | 159 | 158 | 122 |
| 2022-Q1 | 166 | 161 | 123 |
| 2022-Q2 | 177 | 165 | 125 |
| 2022-Q3 | 192 | 168 | 127 |
| 2022-Q4 | 207 | 177 | 130 |
| 2023-Q1 | 221 | 186 | 134 |
| 2023-Q2 | 228 | 190 | 136 |
| 2023-Q3 | 229 | 200 | 139 |
| 2023-Q4 | 225 | 200 | 141 |
| 2024-Q1 | 220 | 197 | 144 |
| 2024-Q2 | 218 | 203 | 145 |
| 2024-Q3 | 220 | 202 | 146 |
| 2024-Q4 | 220 | 200 | 146 |
| 2025-Q1 | 221 | 201 | 147 |
| 2025-Q2 | 223 | 200 | 148 |
| 2025-Q3 | 226 | 200 | 149 |
| 2025-Q4 | 224 | 201 | 150 |
| 2026-Q1 | 225 | 200 | 151 |
| 2026-Q2 | 227 | 202 | 151 |
FreeFlowchart
Five checks before you buy a shop, office or factory unit
Rules from SLA, IRAS and JTC. Deal counts and rent against price are my calculations.
Source: SLA, IRAS, JTC; PropInsights calculation. Deal counts: PropInsights calculation from transaction records, 2011. Rent against price: URA and JTC rent and price indices via SingStat, 1998 Q4 to 2026 Q2..
View the data as a table
| Step | Detail | Leads to |
|---|---|---|
| Tenure | Freehold or. years left?. Short leases. lose value | Who may buy |
| Who may buy | No RPA approval. for commercial. or industrial.. JTC: trade limits | Costs |
| Costs | BSD tops out. at 5%. No ABSD.. Industrial SSD:. 3 years | Exit |
| Exit | About 1 deal. for every 9 home. deals (2011) | Rent vs price |
| Rent vs price | Office rent per. $ of price +81%. Home: -26%. (since 1998 Q4) |