Conclusion: what the 30-year record says about timing
FreeKey figuresFour lessons, four numbers: slow cycles, long waits, milder falls, a falling premium
FreeKey figures
Four lessons, four numbers: slow cycles, long waits, milder falls, a falling premium
URA price index to 2026 Q2; freehold premium = resale median psf, freehold over 99-year leasehold condos, average of quarters.
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| Measure | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Average cycle length | 5.4 years | 4 cycles since 1999 Q1 |
| Wait after the 2013 peak | 29 qtrs | index regained in 2020 Q4 |
| Peak-to-trough fall | 11.6% | 2013-17 (1996-98: 44.9%) |
| Premium since 2021 Q4 | 13.9% | 30.7% avg, 1995-2012 Q1 |
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Conclusion: what the 30-year record says about timing
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Conclusion: what the 30-year record says about timing
Peak buyers waited 8 to 56 quarters for the index to return to their entry level
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Conclusion: what the 30-year record says about timing
The numbers to check depend on the goal: income, price gain or a home to live in
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