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Conclusion: what the 30-year record says about timing

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Peak buyers waited 8 to 56 quarters for the index to return to their entry level

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Peak buyers waited 8 to 56 quarters for the index to return to their entry level

Quarters from each peak to the trough, then to the first quarter at or above the peak level. Index only: no costs, rent or interest.

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Peak buyers waited 8 to 56 quarters for the index to return to their entry levelThe buyer at the 2013 peak waited 29 quarters, until 2020 Q4, to see the index above the purchase level again.Peak to troughTrough back to the peak level01020304050601996 Q2 peak1996 Q2 peak: Peak to trough 101996 Q2 peak: Peak to trough 10101996 Q2 peak: Trough back to the peak level 461996 Q2 peak: Trough back to the peak level 46461996 Q2 peak: total 5656Index fell 44.9% to 1998 Q4; peak level regained 2010 Q22000 Q2 peak2000 Q2 peak: Peak to trough 152000 Q2 peak: Peak to trough 15152000 Q2 peak: Trough back to the peak level 132000 Q2 peak: Trough back to the peak level 13132000 Q2 peak: total 2828Index fell 20.0% to 2004 Q1; regained 2007 Q22008 Q2 peak2008 Q2 peak: Peak to trough 42008 Q2 peak: Peak to trough 442008 Q2 peak: Trough back to the peak level 42008 Q2 peak: Trough back to the peak level 442008 Q2 peak: total 88Index fell 24.9% to 2009 Q2; regained 2010 Q22013 Q3 peak2013 Q3 peak: Peak to trough 152013 Q3 peak: Peak to trough 15152013 Q3 peak: Trough back to the peak level 142013 Q3 peak: Trough back to the peak level 14142013 Q3 peak: total 2929Index fell 11.6% to 2017 Q2; regained 2020 Q4

The buyer at the 2013 peak waited 29 quarters, until 2020 Q4, to see the index above the purchase level again.

Source: PropInsights calculation from the URA private home price index via SingStat (ppi.all), 1996 Q2 to 2020 Q4. Peaks and troughs as in the cycle model.

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Peak buyers waited 8 to 56 quarters for the index to return to their entry level
BarSegmentValue
1996 Q2 peakPeak to trough10
1996 Q2 peakTrough back to the peak level46
2000 Q2 peakPeak to trough15
2000 Q2 peakTrough back to the peak level13
2008 Q2 peakPeak to trough4
2008 Q2 peakTrough back to the peak level4
2013 Q3 peakPeak to trough15
2013 Q3 peakTrough back to the peak level14
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Conclusion: what the 30-year record says about timing
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Conclusion: what the 30-year record says about timing

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