Are foreigners driving up property prices?
How big is the foreign share of buyers, and did the ABSD cut it?
Asks whether foreign buyers pushed up prices. The URA buyer profile of uncompleted homes, which ends in 2013 Q1, shows foreigners at 20.1% of buyers in 2011 Q3 and 6.2% in 2012 Q1, after the ABSD began. The data cannot say how much foreign demand added to prices, or what happened after 2013.
FreeKey figures
Foreigners were 20.1% of new-home buyers in 2011 Q3 and 6.2% after the ABSD
Source: URA buyer profile of uncompleted homes, 1996 Q2 to 2013 Q1; IRAS
Source: URA buyer profile of uncompleted private homes (archive data series, to 2013 Q1); IRAS for the ABSD. Shares from the derived table buyer_profile_shares (counts of the four buyer groups). The ABSD rate in tile 4 is typed from IRAS. There is no buyer-profile data after 2013 Q1.. Data to 2013 Q1.
View the data as a table
| Measure | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Foreign share, peak | 20.1% | 2011 Q3 |
| Foreign share, 2012 Q1 | 6.2% | first quarter after ABSD |
| Singaporean share, low | 63.4% | 2007 Q4 |
| ABSD for foreigners | 60% | since 27 Apr 2023 |
FreeFlowchart
More people lift demand; the ABSD targets one group of buyers
Diagram of the argument in this section, with the data I can check
View the data as a table
| Step | Detail | Leads to |
|---|---|---|
| More people | 6.21m in 2026 | More renters; More buyers |
| More renters | rents rise | Higher yields |
| More buyers | bid prices up | Prices rise |
| Higher yields | attract investors | Prices rise |
| Prices rise | ||
| ABSD from Dec 2011 | 10% for foreigners. 60% since Apr 2023 | Foreign share of buyers fell |
| Foreign share of buyers fell | 17.0% in 2011 Q4. 6.2% in 2012 Q1 | Buyer data end |
| Buyer data end | 2013 Q1 |
FreeTimeline
The foreigner ABSD rose from 10% to 60% in five rounds; my buyer data end in 2013 Q1
Bold figure: change in the URA private price index over four quarters from each round (not a cause).
View the data as a table
| Event | Start | End | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% (introduced) | 2011-12-08 | 2013-01-11 | +2.8% |
| 15% | 2013-01-12 | 2018-07-05 | -0.7% |
| 20% | 2018-07-06 | 2021-12-15 | +2.1% |
| 30% | 2021-12-16 | 2023-04-26 | +8.6% |
| 60% (today) | 2023-04-27 | 2026-10-16 | +6.0% |
| Last quarter of data | 2013-03-31 |