How interest rates and yields affect property prices
Do higher interest rates push prices down, and how do rental yields compare with borrowing costs?
Asks how interest rates and rental yields relate to prices. It follows the 3-month SIBOR and the 3-month SORA and compares them with price changes and with gross yields. The main finding: higher rates raise the payment and cut borrowing room, but in these data they do not set the direction of prices.
FreeKey figures
The 3-month SORA rose 3.6 points in two years, to 3.73% in 2023 Q4
SingStat table M700071 and URA medians; quarterly averages, 2005 Q4 to 2026 Q2 (yields from 2021 Q4)
Source: SingStat table M700071 (SORA) and URA median rents and prices. URA Property Price Index; PropInsights calculation. Data to 2026 Q3.
Licence: green class (Singapore Open Data Licence).
View the data as a table
| Measure | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Rise, 2021 Q4 to 2023 Q4 | +3.6 pts | from 0.17% to 3.73% |
| Lowest quarter | 0.04% | 3-month SORA average, 2012 Q2 |
| Average rate, 2005-2026 | 1.09% | 2005 Q4 to 2026 Q3 |
| Gross yield, 2021-2026 | 2.94% | average of CCR, RCR, OCR |
FreeLine chart
The 3-month rate fell from 7.4% in 1990 to near zero, then rose to 3.7% in 2023
Quarterly average of month-end rates (%). SIBOR to 2013 Q1 and SORA from 2005 Q4 overlap and are not joined
Source: SIBOR: PropertyMarketInsights.com data set (to March 2013); 3-month compounded SORA: SingStat table M700071 (from October 2005). Quarterly averages of month-end values. SIBOR series compiled by PropInsights from ABS releases. Data to 2026 Q3.
Licence: green class (Singapore Open Data Licence); amber class.
View the data as a table
| Period | SIBOR 3m | SORA 3m |
|---|---|---|
| 1988-Q1 | 3.1% | |
| 1988-Q2 | 3.9% | |
| 1988-Q3 | 5.2% | |
| 1988-Q4 | 5.3% | |
| 1989-Q1 | 5.4% | |
| 1989-Q2 | 5.3% | |
| 1989-Q3 | 5.3% | |
| 1989-Q4 | 5.5% | |
| 1990-Q1 | 6.4% | |
| 1990-Q2 | 7.4% | |
| 1990-Q3 | 6.9% | |
| 1990-Q4 | 5.8% | |
| 1991-Q1 | 4.8% | |
| 1991-Q2 | 5.7% | |
| 1991-Q3 | 5.3% | |
| 1991-Q4 | 3.5% | |
| 1992-Q1 | 3.5% | |
| 1992-Q2 | 3.2% | |
| 1992-Q3 | 2.2% | |
| 1992-Q4 | 2.3% | |
| 1993-Q1 | 2.0% | |
| 1993-Q2 | 2.9% | |
| 1993-Q3 | 2.8% | |
| 1993-Q4 | 2.6% | |
| 1994-Q1 | 3.3% | |
| 1994-Q2 | 3.9% | |
| 1994-Q3 | 3.8% | |
| 1994-Q4 | 4.1% | |
| 1995-Q1 | 3.1% | |
| 1995-Q2 | 1.9% | |
| 1995-Q3 | 3.0% | |
| 1995-Q4 | 2.7% | |
| 1996-Q1 | 2.4% | |
| 1996-Q2 | 2.6% | |
| 1996-Q3 | 3.4% | |
| 1996-Q4 | 3.4% | |
| 1997-Q1 | 3.1% | |
| 1997-Q2 | 3.7% | |
| 1997-Q3 | 4.1% | |
| 1997-Q4 | 6.0% | |
| 1998-Q1 | 6.0% | |
| 1998-Q2 | 6.0% | |
| 1998-Q3 | 4.9% | |
| 1998-Q4 | 2.3% | |
| 1999-Q1 | 2.0% | |
| 1999-Q2 | 1.6% | |
| 1999-Q3 | 2.3% | |
| 1999-Q4 | 2.6% | |
| 2000-Q1 | 2.4% | |
| 2000-Q2 | 2.6% | |
| 2000-Q3 | 2.6% | |
| 2000-Q4 | 2.8% | |
| 2001-Q1 | 2.3% | |
| 2001-Q2 | 2.3% | |
| 2001-Q3 | 2.1% | |
| 2001-Q4 | 1.1% | |
| 2002-Q1 | 1.0% | |
| 2002-Q2 | 0.9% | |
| 2002-Q3 | 1.0% | |
| 2002-Q4 | 0.9% | |
| 2003-Q1 | 0.7% | |
| 2003-Q2 | 0.7% | |
| 2003-Q3 | 0.8% | |
| 2003-Q4 | 0.8% | |
| 2004-Q1 | 0.8% | |
| 2004-Q2 | 0.8% | |
| 2004-Q3 | 1.3% | |
| 2004-Q4 | 1.4% | |
| 2005-Q1 | 1.9% | |
| 2005-Q2 | 2.1% | |
| 2005-Q3 | 2.1% | |
| 2005-Q4 | 3.0% | 2.3% |
| 2006-Q1 | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| 2006-Q2 | 3.5% | 3.1% |
| 2006-Q3 | 3.5% | 3.2% |
| 2006-Q4 | 3.5% | 3.3% |
| 2007-Q1 | 3.3% | 3.1% |
| 2007-Q2 | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| 2007-Q3 | 2.6% | 2.3% |
| 2007-Q4 | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| 2008-Q1 | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| 2008-Q2 | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| 2008-Q3 | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 2008-Q4 | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| 2009-Q1 | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2009-Q2 | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2009-Q3 | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2009-Q4 | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2010-Q1 | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2010-Q2 | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2010-Q3 | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2010-Q4 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2011-Q1 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2011-Q2 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2011-Q3 | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 2011-Q4 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2012-Q1 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2012-Q2 | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 2012-Q3 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2012-Q4 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2013-Q1 | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 2013-Q2 | 0.1% | |
| 2013-Q3 | 0.0% | |
| 2013-Q4 | 0.1% | |
| 2014-Q1 | 0.1% | |
| 2014-Q2 | 0.1% | |
| 2014-Q3 | 0.1% | |
| 2014-Q4 | 0.1% | |
| 2015-Q1 | 0.2% | |
| 2015-Q2 | 0.2% | |
| 2015-Q3 | 0.2% | |
| 2015-Q4 | 0.3% | |
| 2016-Q1 | 0.3% | |
| 2016-Q2 | 0.3% | |
| 2016-Q3 | 0.2% | |
| 2016-Q4 | 0.1% | |
| 2017-Q1 | 0.2% | |
| 2017-Q2 | 0.4% | |
| 2017-Q3 | 0.7% | |
| 2017-Q4 | 0.8% | |
| 2018-Q1 | 0.7% | |
| 2018-Q2 | 0.8% | |
| 2018-Q3 | 1.2% | |
| 2018-Q4 | 1.3% | |
| 2019-Q1 | 1.6% | |
| 2019-Q2 | 1.7% | |
| 2019-Q3 | 1.6% | |
| 2019-Q4 | 1.3% | |
| 2020-Q1 | 1.1% | |
| 2020-Q2 | 0.3% | |
| 2020-Q3 | 0.1% | |
| 2020-Q4 | 0.1% | |
| 2021-Q1 | 0.2% | |
| 2021-Q2 | 0.2% | |
| 2021-Q3 | 0.1% | |
| 2021-Q4 | 0.2% | |
| 2022-Q1 | 0.2% | |
| 2022-Q2 | 0.5% | |
| 2022-Q3 | 1.6% | |
| 2022-Q4 | 2.8% | |
| 2023-Q1 | 3.3% | |
| 2023-Q2 | 3.6% | |
| 2023-Q3 | 3.7% | |
| 2023-Q4 | 3.7% | |
| 2024-Q1 | 3.7% | |
| 2024-Q2 | 3.6% | |
| 2024-Q3 | 3.6% | |
| 2024-Q4 | 3.2% | |
| 2025-Q1 | 2.7% | |
| 2025-Q2 | 2.2% | |
| 2025-Q3 | 1.6% | |
| 2025-Q4 | 1.3% | |
| 2026-Q1 | 1.1% | |
| 2026-Q2 | 1.1% | |
| 2026-Q3 | 1.2% |
FreeTimeline
Rates sat near zero for years, then rose 3.6 points as debt rules tightened
Rate data, rate episodes and TDSR rules, 1987 to 2026
Source: SingStat table M700071, PropertyMarketInsights.com SIBOR data set, MAS and ABS releases. 1987 to 2026 Q2.
View the data as a table
| Event | Start | End | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-month SIBOR | 1987-07 | 2013-03 | |
| 3-month SORA | 2005-10 | 2026-06 | |
| SIBOR discontinued | 2024-12-31 | ||
| SIBOR peak 8.00% | 1990-05 | ||
| SIBOR 7.75% | 1998-01 | ||
| SORA below 0.35% | 2009-01 | 2017-03 | |
| SORA up 3.6 points | 2021-10 | 2023-12 | |
| TDSR introduced at 60% | 2013-06-28 | ||
| TDSR cut to 55% | 2021-12-16 | ||
| Rate floor 3.5% to 4% | 2022-09-30 |
FreeFlowchart
A rate rise squeezes the payment and borrowing room; the price effect is not clear
Diagram: dashed arrows are links the data do not prove
Source: Loan payments for a S$1,000,000 loan over 30 years; TDSR from MAS; price figures from the URA Property Price Index.
View the data as a table
| Step | Detail | Leads to |
|---|---|---|
| Benchmark rate rises | SORA up 3.6 points,. 2021 Q4 to 2023 Q4 | Loan payment rises |
| Loan payment rises | S$1m, 30 years: S$3,216. at 1%, S$4,774 at 4% | Borrowing room shrinks |
| Borrowing room shrinks | TDSR: 55% of income,. tested at 4% or more | Fewer buyers may qualify |
| Fewer buyers may qualify | Demand may soften | Effect on prices |
| Effect on prices | Not clear in the data | What happened 2021 to 2023 |
| What happened 2021 to 2023 | Index up 16.1%; growth. slowed, then policy tightened |
FreeLine chart
Year-on-year price change ranged from -34% to +47% and did not follow the rate
Change in the URA private residential price index over four quarters (%), 1988 Q1 to 2026 Q2
Source: URA Property Price Index, all private residential, via SingStat (table M212261). Change over four quarters. Data to 2026 Q2.
Licence: green class (Singapore Open Data Licence).
View the data as a table
| Period | Price chg |
|---|---|
| 1988-Q1 | 10.2% |
| 1988-Q2 | 8.4% |
| 1988-Q3 | 1.9% |
| 1988-Q4 | 6.3% |
| 1989-Q1 | 9.9% |
| 1989-Q2 | 10.2% |
| 1989-Q3 | 15.6% |
| 1989-Q4 | 12.6% |
| 1990-Q1 | 18.6% |
| 1990-Q2 | 17.7% |
| 1990-Q3 | 11.4% |
| 1990-Q4 | 5.2% |
| 1991-Q1 | 2.9% |
| 1991-Q2 | 9.1% |
| 1991-Q3 | 11.4% |
| 1991-Q4 | 18.1% |
| 1992-Q1 | 18.5% |
| 1992-Q2 | 13.6% |
| 1992-Q3 | 15.0% |
| 1992-Q4 | 16.2% |
| 1993-Q1 | 16.8% |
| 1993-Q2 | 25.3% |
| 1993-Q3 | 32.2% |
| 1993-Q4 | 35.8% |
| 1994-Q1 | 40.8% |
| 1994-Q2 | 44.2% |
| 1994-Q3 | 47.0% |
| 1994-Q4 | 42.3% |
| 1995-Q1 | 33.7% |
| 1995-Q2 | 18.7% |
| 1995-Q3 | 7.8% |
| 1995-Q4 | 10.3% |
| 1996-Q1 | 11.4% |
| 1996-Q2 | 16.7% |
| 1996-Q3 | 12.9% |
| 1996-Q4 | 4.9% |
| 1997-Q1 | -2.5% |
| 1997-Q2 | -8.9% |
| 1997-Q3 | -11.2% |
| 1997-Q4 | -12.4% |
| 1998-Q1 | -17.5% |
| 1998-Q2 | -23.8% |
| 1998-Q3 | -30.7% |
| 1998-Q4 | -34.0% |
| 1999-Q1 | -23.3% |
| 1999-Q2 | -6.4% |
| 1999-Q3 | 16.3% |
| 1999-Q4 | 34.1% |
| 2000-Q1 | 31.2% |
| 2000-Q2 | 19.1% |
| 2000-Q3 | 7.1% |
| 2000-Q4 | -1.0% |
| 2001-Q1 | -7.9% |
| 2001-Q2 | -10.1% |
| 2001-Q3 | -10.2% |
| 2001-Q4 | -11.7% |
| 2002-Q1 | -9.1% |
| 2002-Q2 | -9.0% |
| 2002-Q3 | -5.7% |
| 2002-Q4 | -1.8% |
| 2003-Q1 | -1.4% |
| 2003-Q2 | -1.3% |
| 2003-Q3 | -2.3% |
| 2003-Q4 | -2.1% |
| 2004-Q1 | -1.6% |
| 2004-Q2 | -0.9% |
| 2004-Q3 | 0.0% |
| 2004-Q4 | 0.9% |
| 2005-Q1 | 2.0% |
| 2005-Q2 | 2.4% |
| 2005-Q3 | 3.2% |
| 2005-Q4 | 3.9% |
| 2006-Q1 | 4.8% |
| 2006-Q2 | 6.1% |
| 2006-Q3 | 7.6% |
| 2006-Q4 | 10.2% |
| 2007-Q1 | 13.8% |
| 2007-Q2 | 21.0% |
| 2007-Q3 | 27.7% |
| 2007-Q4 | 31.1% |
| 2008-Q1 | 29.8% |
| 2008-Q2 | 20.2% |
| 2008-Q3 | 8.3% |
| 2008-Q4 | -4.7% |
| 2009-Q1 | -21.1% |
| 2009-Q2 | -24.9% |
| 2009-Q3 | -11.0% |
| 2009-Q4 | 1.7% |
| 2010-Q1 | 25.1% |
| 2010-Q2 | 38.2% |
| 2010-Q3 | 22.8% |
| 2010-Q4 | 17.6% |
| 2011-Q1 | 13.7% |
| 2011-Q2 | 10.2% |
| 2011-Q3 | 8.5% |
| 2011-Q4 | 5.9% |
| 2012-Q1 | 3.4% |
| 2012-Q2 | 1.9% |
| 2012-Q3 | 1.2% |
| 2012-Q4 | 2.8% |
| 2013-Q1 | 3.5% |
| 2013-Q2 | 4.1% |
| 2013-Q3 | 3.9% |
| 2013-Q4 | 1.1% |
| 2014-Q1 | -0.7% |
| 2014-Q2 | -2.8% |
| 2014-Q3 | -3.9% |
| 2014-Q4 | -4.0% |
| 2015-Q1 | -3.8% |
| 2015-Q2 | -3.7% |
| 2015-Q3 | -4.2% |
| 2015-Q4 | -3.7% |
| 2016-Q1 | -3.4% |
| 2016-Q2 | -2.9% |
| 2016-Q3 | -3.1% |
| 2016-Q4 | -3.1% |
| 2017-Q1 | -2.8% |
| 2017-Q2 | -2.4% |
| 2017-Q3 | -0.2% |
| 2017-Q4 | 1.1% |
| 2018-Q1 | 5.4% |
| 2018-Q2 | 9.1% |
| 2018-Q3 | 8.8% |
| 2018-Q4 | 7.9% |
| 2019-Q1 | 3.1% |
| 2019-Q2 | 1.2% |
| 2019-Q3 | 2.1% |
| 2019-Q4 | 2.7% |
| 2020-Q1 | 2.4% |
| 2020-Q2 | 1.2% |
| 2020-Q3 | 0.7% |
| 2020-Q4 | 2.2% |
| 2021-Q1 | 6.6% |
| 2021-Q2 | 7.1% |
| 2021-Q3 | 7.5% |
| 2021-Q4 | 10.6% |
| 2022-Q1 | 7.8% |
| 2022-Q2 | 10.6% |
| 2022-Q3 | 13.6% |
| 2022-Q4 | 8.6% |
| 2023-Q1 | 11.4% |
| 2023-Q2 | 7.5% |
| 2023-Q3 | 4.4% |
| 2023-Q4 | 6.8% |
| 2024-Q1 | 4.9% |
| 2024-Q2 | 6.0% |
| 2024-Q3 | 4.4% |
| 2024-Q4 | 3.9% |
| 2025-Q1 | 3.3% |
| 2025-Q2 | 3.4% |
| 2025-Q3 | 5.1% |
| 2025-Q4 | 3.3% |
| 2026-Q1 | 3.4% |
| 2026-Q2 | 2.9% |
FreeLine chart
Gross yield sat below the 3-month rate for eight quarters; now 1.9 points above
Average of CCR, RCR and OCR gross yields, 3-month SORA and 10-year SGS yield (%), 2021 Q4 to 2026 Q2
Source: URA median rents and median prices (CCR, RCR, OCR); SingStat table M700071 for SORA and the 10-year SGS yield. Medians are not quality-adjusted. Gross yield = median monthly rent psf x 12 / median price psf, simple average of the three regions. Data to 2026 Q2.
Licence: green class (Singapore Open Data Licence).
View the data as a table
| Period | Gross yield | SORA 3m | SGS 10y |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-Q4 | 2.5% | 0.2% | 1.7% |
| 2022-Q1 | 2.6% | 0.2% | 2.0% |
| 2022-Q2 | 2.7% | 0.5% | 2.7% |
| 2022-Q3 | 2.8% | 1.6% | 3.0% |
| 2022-Q4 | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% |
| 2023-Q1 | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% |
| 2023-Q2 | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% |
| 2023-Q3 | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% |
| 2023-Q4 | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| 2024-Q1 | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| 2024-Q2 | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% |
| 2024-Q3 | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% |
| 2024-Q4 | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% |
| 2025-Q1 | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| 2025-Q2 | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% |
| 2025-Q3 | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% |
| 2025-Q4 | 2.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% |
| 2026-Q1 | 2.8% | 1.1% | 2.1% |
| 2026-Q2 | 3.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% |
FreeFlowchart
Compare the yield with the rate you pay: a positive spread means rent covers interest
Diagram: how to read the spread
Source: Yield and SORA from URA medians and SingStat table M700071, 2026 Q2.
View the data as a table
| Step | Detail | Leads to |
|---|---|---|
| Gross yield | 2.99% in 2026 Q2. before costs and vacancy | Yield above |
| Cost of borrowing | SORA 1.06% plus bank margin. (margin not in the data) | Yield above |
| Yield above | SORA + margin? | Positive spread (yes); Negative spread (no) |
| Positive spread | Rent covers the interest. (before costs, vacancy) | |
| Negative spread | You need price growth |