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When and what simulator

How did buying at different times turn out?

Pick a quarter and a segment. See what the price index did after it, where the next peak came, and which phase of the Property Market Cycle Model the market was in then. The current phase is for members.

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When and what simulatorPropInsights.sg

Your numbers

Change a value and the results update at once.

Your purchase
Index from 1975-Q1.
Quarter
What counts as a peak
A peak is the highest point of the index before a large fall. It is only known after the fall happens.
%
A peak counts once the index has fallen this far from it. At 10%, the all-private index has five peaks since 1975.

Index change from 2015 Q1 to 2026 Q2

Good:

Index 145.5 to 219.4 over 45 quarters, 3.7% a year. Index only, not the return on a home.

Index change from 2015 Q1 to 2026 Q2: 50.8%. Index 145.5 to 219.4 over 45 quarters, 3.7% a year. Index only, not the return on a home.
Index change to the highest point so far (2026-Q2)
Good: 50.8%
145.5 to 219.4, 45 quarters, 3.7% a year
Phase at purchase
Early Bear
2015 Q1
Phase now
For members
The current phase is for members.

No fall of 10% has followed since this quarter, so no peak is confirmed. The figure uses the highest point so far.

Index only. This ignores stamp duty, legal and agent fees, rent, loan interest and selling costs. It is not the return on a home.

All private homes: price index with your purchase marked
Early BullLate BullEarly BearLate BearCurrent phase: members
The current phase is for members.05010015020025019751982198919962003201020172024Bought 2015 Q1Latest 2026 Q2
Chart data as a table
QuarterIndexCycle phase
1975 Q18.9
1975 Q29.1
1975 Q39.1
1975 Q49.1
1976 Q19.5
1976 Q29.5
1976 Q39.8
1976 Q49.5
1977 Q19.5
1977 Q29.5
1977 Q39.5
1977 Q49.1
1978 Q19.1
1978 Q29.5
1978 Q39.5
1978 Q49.8
1979 Q110.4
1979 Q210.9
1979 Q311.9
1979 Q412.7
1980 Q115.1
1980 Q217.7
1980 Q320.4
1980 Q423.9
1981 Q130.5
1981 Q234.6
1981 Q334
1981 Q432.2
1982 Q132
1982 Q232.8
1982 Q333.5
1982 Q434.6
1983 Q136.1
1983 Q237.2
1983 Q337.5
1983 Q437.5
1984 Q137.2
1984 Q235.5
1984 Q334.6
1984 Q433.1
1985 Q131
1985 Q230.2
1985 Q328.7
1985 Q428.1
1986 Q126.3
1986 Q223.9
1986 Q325.3
1986 Q427.9
1987 Q128.5
1987 Q229.7
1987 Q332
1987 Q432
1988 Q131.4
1988 Q232.2
1988 Q332.6
1988 Q434
1989 Q134.5
1989 Q235.5
1989 Q337.7
1989 Q438.3
1990 Q140.9
1990 Q241.8
1990 Q342
1990 Q440.3
1991 Q142.1
1991 Q245.6
1991 Q346.8
1991 Q447.6
1992 Q149.9
1992 Q251.8
1992 Q353.8
1992 Q455.3
1993 Q158.3
1993 Q264.9
1993 Q371.1
1993 Q475.1
1994 Q182.1
1994 Q293.6
1994 Q3104.5
1994 Q4106.9
1995 Q1109.8Late Bull
1995 Q2111.1Late Bull
1995 Q3112.7Late Bull
1995 Q4117.9Late Bull
1996 Q1122.3Late Bull
1996 Q2129.7Late Bull
1996 Q3127.2Early Bear
1996 Q4123.7Early Bear
1997 Q1119.2Early Bear
1997 Q2118.2Early Bear
1997 Q3113Early Bear
1997 Q4108.4Early Bear
1998 Q198.3Early Bear
1998 Q290.1Early Bear
1998 Q378.3Early Bear
1998 Q471.5Late Bear
1999 Q175.4Early Bull
1999 Q284.3Early Bull
1999 Q391.1Early Bull
1999 Q495.9Early Bull
2000 Q198.9Late Bull
2000 Q2100.4Late Bull
2000 Q397.6Early Bear
2000 Q494.9Early Bear
2001 Q191.1Early Bear
2001 Q290.3Early Bear
2001 Q387.6Early Bear
2001 Q483.8Late Bear
2002 Q182.8Late Bear
2002 Q282.2Late Bear
2002 Q382.6Late Bear
2002 Q482.3Late Bear
2003 Q181.6Late Bear
2003 Q281.1Late Bear
2003 Q380.7Late Bear
2003 Q480.6Late Bear
2004 Q180.3Late Bear
2004 Q280.4Early Bull
2004 Q380.7Early Bull
2004 Q481.3Early Bull
2005 Q181.9Early Bull
2005 Q282.3Early Bull
2005 Q383.3Early Bull
2005 Q484.5Early Bull
2006 Q185.8Early Bull
2006 Q287.3Early Bull
2006 Q389.6Early Bull
2006 Q493.1Early Bull
2007 Q197.6Early Bull
2007 Q2105.6Early Bull
2007 Q3114.4Early Bull
2007 Q4122.1Late Bull
2008 Q1126.7Late Bull
2008 Q2126.9Late Bull
2008 Q3123.9Early Bear
2008 Q4116.4Early Bear
2009 Q1100Early Bear
2009 Q295.3Late Bear
2009 Q3110.3Early Bull
2009 Q4118.4Early Bull
2010 Q1125.1Early Bull
2010 Q2131.7Early Bull
2010 Q3135.5Early Bull
2010 Q4139.2Early Bull
2011 Q1142.3Early Bull
2011 Q2145.1Early Bull
2011 Q3147Late Bull
2011 Q4147.4Late Bull
2012 Q1147.2Late Bull
2012 Q2147.9Late Bull
2012 Q3148.8Late Bull
2012 Q4151.5Late Bull
2013 Q1152.4Late Bull
2013 Q2154Late Bull
2013 Q3154.6Late Bull
2013 Q4153.2Early Bear
2014 Q1151.3Early Bear
2014 Q2149.7Early Bear
2014 Q3148.6Early Bear
2014 Q4147Early Bear
2015 Q1145.5Early Bear
2015 Q2144.2Early Bear
2015 Q3142.3Early Bear
2015 Q4141.6Early Bear
2016 Q1140.6Early Bear
2016 Q2140Early Bear
2016 Q3137.9Early Bear
2016 Q4137.2Early Bear
2017 Q1136.7Late Bear
2017 Q2136.6Late Bear
2017 Q3137.6Early Bull
2017 Q4138.7Early Bull
2018 Q1144.1Early Bull
2018 Q2149Early Bull
2018 Q3149.7Early Bull
2018 Q4149.6Late Bull
2019 Q1148.6Late Bull
2019 Q2150.8Late Bull
2019 Q3152.8Late Bull
2019 Q4153.6Late Bull
2020 Q1152.1Early Bear
2020 Q2152.6Early Bear
2020 Q3153.8Late Bear
2020 Q4157Early Bull
2021 Q1162.2Early Bull
2021 Q2163.5Early Bull
2021 Q3165.3Early Bull
2021 Q4173.6Early Bull
2022 Q1174.8Early Bull
2022 Q2180.9Early Bull
2022 Q3187.8Early Bull
2022 Q4188.6Early Bull
2023 Q1194.8Early Bull
2023 Q2194.4Early Bull
2023 Q3196Early Bull
2023 Q4201.5Early Bull
2024 Q1204.3Early Bull
2024 Q2206.1Early Bull
2024 Q3204.7Early Bull
2024 Q4209.4Early Bull
2025 Q1211.1Early Bull
2025 Q2213.2Early Bull
2025 Q3215.1Early Bull
2025 Q4216.4Current phase: members
2026 Q1218.3Current phase: members
2026 Q2219.4Current phase: members

The numbers

QuarterIndex (1Q2009 = 100)Cycle phase
Purchase2015 Q1145.5Early Bear
Highest point so far2026 Q2219.4Current phase: members
Latest2026 Q2219.4Current phase: members

Assumptions and rules used

These are the values behind every number on this page. They are always shown.

Segment
All private homes
Index
Price index, 1Q2009 = 100, by quarter
Latest quarter
2026-Q2
Peak
Highest point before the index falls 10% from it
Data built
2026-10-18

Limits of this tool

  • Source: Private residential property price index, URA via SingStat (tables M212261 and M212271), 1Q2009 = 100.
  • URA changed the index method to stratified hedonic regression from 1Q2015. The regional indices start in 2004 Q1.
  • Cycle phase: Property Market Cycle Model (data/derived/pmcm.csv). The model starts in 1995 Q1.
  • The cycle model labels the latest quarter provisional when its phase starts on a signal that the next quarter may reverse.
  • The current phase is for members.
  • The next peak is found after the fact. On the day you buy, you do not know which quarter will turn out to be the peak.

Not financial advice; check current rules with IRAS and MAS. Results are estimates from the inputs and the dated rules shown.